Recently, I’ve been seeing a lot of people fixating on stablecoin supply and ETF inflows, acting like “oh, the money’s here, it’s going up.” I just want to laugh. In reality, on-chain stablecoins are moving around in most cases because of arbitrage and market makers “doing deals,” and it has no direct connection to whether retail buyers buy BTC at all. That little bit of net inflow from the ETF sometimes isn’t even as significant as what a single whale wallet can shuffle back and forth with a few transactions. Correlation doesn’t equal causation—don’t treat talking points as truth. Anyway, after watching the order book for a long time, I feel that the money signals are mostly lagging indicators; by the time you figure it out, they’ve already exited.

By the way, the recent AI Agent narrative has been pretty lively—automatic trading, on-chain interactions, and all that. Honestly, for teams that are being hyped to the sky, I’m more concerned whether they’ve actually done contract security audits. Otherwise, it’ll end up as a smart-contract version of, “Who am I? Where am I?” In short, that’s it.