🔥 AI model competitions crush chip stocks, weighing on the crypto market

After Mysterious Moon released the open-source Kimi K3 model with 2.8 trillion parameters, Wall Street recalled a DeepSeek moment—chip stocks plunged on Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5%, and SK Hynix’s ADR briefly broke below its issue price. This is the latest signal that expectations for AI capital expenditures are easing.
Crypto is paying for it. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s volatility has been lower than that of Korean stocks, and capital has systematically pulled out of risk assets. CoinShares’ report shows that crypto funds have resumed inflows, but price pressure hasn’t eased—what’s leaving isn’t just sentiment, it’s liquidity itself.
Marginal returns from AI models are diminishing, while training costs continue to surge. Kimi K3’s 2.8 trillion parameters mean only top-tier cloud providers can host it. When open-source models can’t run on ordinary devices, the market starts to question the return on AI infrastructure. As a high-beta asset, crypto is the first to be repriced.
Downside risk: if chip stocks stabilize next week, crypto could see a short-covering-style rebound. But with on-chain leverage still at high levels, the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid has remained consistently negative. What the rally lacks isn’t a catalyst—it’s spot buy-side demand.
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