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Galaxy Futures: The situation between the US and Iran has deteriorated again, and copper prices fall in the short term

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The US-Iran situation has deteriorated again. Trump has issued new threats of opening fire over the Iran situation, putting pressure on copper prices and pulling them down. Downstream buyers are still placing normal purchases at low prices, but there is insufficient willingness to accept higher prices, so there is a lack of near-term momentum. Looking longer term, copper mine supply is insufficient. Peru’s copper mines are mostly concentrated in the inland Andes; currently, the heavy rains from El Niño are concentrated along the coasts, so the impact is still limited. If the area affected by heavy rainfall expands, Peru’s copper mines will be hit. Chile’s May copper mine output fell year-on-year, and processing fees dropped to -$128 per ton, putting some smelters in the red. Influenced by local fiscal and tax policies, the supply of tax-included scrap copper is insufficient, leaving the overall supply of raw materials relatively tight. On June 30, the US did not release any messages to the public; the market still has some expectations, and the CL spread remains at around 2–3%. Copper fundamentals remain healthy, and supply-side disruptions as well as the rapid growth of AI and energy storage are still important support factors for copper’s long-term rise. (Galaxy Futures)
XCU-0.48%
CL3.65%
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