Recently I’ve been seeing a bunch of people getting nervous about unlock sell pressure—stakings, token calendars, it’s like the end-of-days judgment. Honestly, if the unlock sell pressure stuff were really that accurate, I should’ve gotten rich a long time ago.

What’s more interesting to me, though, is the flow of over-the-counter funds into stablecoins supply and ETFs. A lot of people keep treating correlation as causation: when they see ETF inflows they say it means prices will rise, and when they see stablecoin supply increasing they shout “bull market.” But the truth is, a lot of the smart money off-exchange often doesn’t care about the short-term unlock cadence. What they look at more are a protocol’s endogenous demand and real retention. It’s like when I dissected a flywheel—I found some TVL that looked great on the surface, but it was basically money-churning from “farming” crews, and once tokens unlocked, it all collapsed.

Anyway, I’m increasingly convinced that trading is about habits, not talent. I just get into the habit of checking on-chain data every day—seeing which addresses are quietly accumulating and which ones are acting. Over the long run, that’s more reliable than chasing an unlock calendar. Talk pessimistically while adding to my position, and keep waiting.