In the short term, the rubber disk market is caught in a tug-of-war between seasonal production expansion expectations and favorable weather factors.

Yesterday night session, the RU2609 contract closed at 17,190 yuan. As of now, the front-month contract still remains in a narrow-band fluctuation around the 17,000s line. Trading volume decreased month-on-month, open interest slightly increased, and the market sentiment is cautious and watchful.

In terms of fundamental data, due to continuous rainfall, Hainan’s rubber reclaim collection price is 12.6 yuan per kilogram, and the circulating volume of raw materials is relatively limited. In Yunnan, the whole-milk rubber quotation is around 17,500 yuan, and the basis maintains a positive structure. Thailand cup lump quotation is 66.6 Thai baht per kilogram. Production areas have entered the peak production season, but frequent showers limit any increase in latex supply.

As of July 12, Qingdao’s total natural rubber inventory was 669.4k tons, down 58,000 tons month-on-month, continuing the de-stocking trend. Downstream all-steel tire plants’ operating rate is 63.72%. Rubber tire enterprises maintain steady procurement for just-needed demand, and no concentrated restocking has started yet. In the short term, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between seasonal expectations of increased production and weather tailwinds. On a day-to-day basis, it is expected to remain range-bound, with key focus on spot transaction activity and rainfall conditions in production areas. (Natural Rubber Network)