After taking a look around at the macro data, interest-rate expectations are still wobbling there, and the US dollar index and risk assets suddenly rise and fall together—honestly, I’m a bit confused. In the past, we always said that rate cuts are good news, but the market doesn’t buy that anymore. The sentiment is like a rubber band—pull it too tight and it snaps.

Anyway, my own positions right now are quite tangled. I don’t dare chase the upside, and I also don’t dare fully liquidate. Macro is like cloth for tailoring: interest rates are the base fabric, and liquidity is the lining. If you shrink it by even a bit, the whole outfit feels tight and constricted. To put it plainly, right now you can only keep an eye on your own cost basis, don’t let emotions drive you. Even if rate-cut expectations are getting hot, you still have to watch where the money is actually going.