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Today’s market.
In the past two days, intraday trading really hasn’t been a good fit for me… My positions are all right, and I’m only one step away from my entry conditions… As a result, yesterday I watched 63.8k and it went up… Today watched 62.8k, and it went up, then it bounced again?
Luckily it’s come back down now; if it had spiked up directly, I’d have to clap-slap my thigh again…
Just keep watching…
These past two days the market has been quite fragmented… Yesterday on-chain was still very calm: deposits into and withdrawals from exchanges were both around 1.6W BTC. The inflows were basically all short-term holders. The net liquidations from cutting losses are also only about 1.x hundred million, and they’re mainly scalpers cutting losses.
The ETF has been seeing net inflows for three straight days, but each day it’s declining, and for two consecutive days the ETF had net inflows while the price was falling.
It’s too fragmented, so here I still choose to wait.
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Orders (Figure 1)
Going up doesn’t have too much guidance. After the 200+ spot orders at 62.8k were eaten today… now below it’s basically just some grid small orders around 100.
That 1,300 BTC whale’s order has also moved down from 61.5k to 61k.
Because the orders below aren’t strong, in the color-band model (Figure 2) right now it’s still simply a green band.
So here, for a swing long at the lows, I still need to wait.
I also need to observe intraday again…
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Nothing else really… At this point it’s just chaos + waiting…
Waiting for what?
Going long at the lows, waiting for a real “volume blow-off exhaustion” opportunity…
On liquidity, today I’ve been waiting for a stop-loss order from that 200 BTC guy on hyperliquid at around 62.5k.
For the swing, wait around 61k to above/below, waiting for a truly strong color-band to appear.
At the same time, watch the movement of that 1,300 BTC whale. Best case: panic, break through, then get rejected and reclaim.
If it closes back below with a body below 61.5k, then we’re in trouble again…
There’s nothing much I have high confidence in for high shorts today… It’s still too far above…