Wu Says he learned that ARK Invest released its 2026 Q2 Bitcoin report, which said Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter; it was at $58,544 at the end of June, and it also broke below the realized price for short-term holders, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain average. The technical picture still leans bearish. However, the percentage of supply in loss rose to about 54%, and the long-term holder supply climbed to a record high of 14.85 million BTC. ARK views this as a potential seller exhaustion signal. The report also noted that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back into the on-chain cost band of about $49k to $53k, so downside risks have not been fully released; US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about 71k BTC in Q2, and Strategy’s STRC preferred shares’ lowest price fell to $74.57.

BTC-0.21%
STRC-0.15%
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GasComplainer
· 7h ago
The technical picture really doesn’t look good, but long-term holders are still adding to their positions; if it drops further, maybe that’s a chance.
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DeltaNeutralPerson
· 7h ago
Loss-making supply is already over half. Looking at historical data, this often corresponds to the bottom area, but the ETF is still seeing net outflows—let’s wait and see for now.
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