$MET 0.1310, the price at this moment in 2024 is 70% lower than the low before the 2016 halving, but on-chain supply is more concentrated than it was in 2020. Historical pattern: 60 days before each halving, altcoins go through a final wave of a 20-30% sharp selloff and shakeout, then begin the main rally. In 2016, $MET fell from 0.08 to 0.06 43 days before the halving, then rose to 0.35. In 2020, 38 days before the halving it dropped from 0.22 to 0.16, then rallied to 0.68. The current trend is perfectly replicating this: the high 0.1552 was dumped to 0.1307, with 24h trading volume of $5.3M, down 40% versus the same period last week—this is a signal that the shakeout is nearing its end, not a breakdown.

Don’t panic over the 14% drop in 24h. In 2016 the shakeout drawdown was 25%, and in 2020 it was 27%. Now it has only dropped 15%, indicating stronger buy-side demand. If it falls to the 0.12-0.13 range, I’ll add to bring my position to 10% of total, with a stop-loss at 0.105 (if it breaks below the prior low 0.11, I’ll concede). Targets in two batches: sell down 30% at 0.18-0.20, and keep the rest to sell after the halving as acceleration pushes above 0.28. Remember, the 30 days before the halving is the “despair window” for altcoins—historically it’s when the most people cut losses, and it’s also the time when smart money picks up supply.
On-chain data further confirms this: the top 100 addresses’ share of holdings rose from 32% in 2023 to 38% now; exchange net outflows have been positive for 5 straight days, meaning the whales aren’t running—they’re accumulating. The only risk is if $BTC suddenly breaks below 60k, but with the halving narrative weighing in, the probability is low. If you’re worried about missing out, buy in small amounts in batches; if you’re afraid of getting killed, wait for a volume-backed breakout above 0.155 to chase.
History won’t repeat exactly, but it will rhyme.