$BTC 7.17 Crypto market daily analysis

⚠️Risk warning: Cryptoassets are highly volatile. This content is for market reference only and does not constitute investment advice. High-leverage futures can easily lead to liquidation.
BTC is currently at $63,300, down slightly by nearly 2% over the past 24 hours. After favorable CPI data pushed prices up to the 65,000 level, long positions’ profit-taking was concentrated, leading to intraday downward pressure with a choppy consolidation. Upward momentum has remained insufficient, and in the short term the market has entered a pullback phase to digest gains.
ETH is also weakening in tandem to $1,830, with a larger drop than BTC. Major altcoins are diverging collectively: L1/L0 chain tokens show a more obvious pullback, small-cap coins face intensified sell pressure, and capital rotates into BTC as a safe haven.
In the short term, ETF inflows have slowed slightly. Signs of institutions trimming positions on rallies are emerging. Over the past 30 days, cumulative flows still show a large net outflow, casting doubt on the sustainability of any rebound.
Macro long-versus-short games are intensifying. June CPI cooled, and the probability of a July rate hike has been sharply reduced to 11%, while U.S. Treasury yields are edging lower. However, Fed officials collectively released hawkish views, stressing that a month-on-month decline in inflation does not imply a trend reversal. They still leave room for rate hikes within the year. On top of that, risks from repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to disturb risk appetite, widening disagreement between longs and shorts in the market.
Key levels: BTC resistance at 64,500–65,000, support at 63,000 and 62,200; ETH resistance at 1,880, support at 1,780.
Trading approach: This cycle involves only a repair of inflation expectations; the medium-term trend has not reversed. Do not chase the bottom on spot—wait for pullbacks to key supports and build positions in batches. For contracts, use light short exposure relying on overhead resistance and strictly control leverage. Given altcoin conditions are fragile, try to avoid them; in the evening, closely watch U.S. Treasury and U.S. stock volatility triggering potential price “pin” moves.