$63,300’s $BTC —what are you waiting for?

First, look at the surface: the market is range-bound at higher levels, and both bulls and bears are cursing.
After the late-June bottom at 58k–60k, there was a violent rebound in early July to 64k–65k. Now it’s grinding around 63k. The 24-hour move is less than 1%, volume is shrinking, RSI is neutral at 50–60, and the MACD histogram is contracting—direction is about to be chosen. Don’t get shaken out of the car.
First thing: the ETF is back, but you might not have noticed.
In June alone, net outflows exceeded $4 billion, setting a historical record and terrifying retail investors. But July clearly warmed up—BlackRock’s IBIT saw daily inflows of over $200 million, with the flagship products posting net inflows for multiple consecutive days.
Same story: back in July 2025, nobody believed it either—later BTC rallied from 55k to 75k.
The news you see is always “ETF outflows of $4 billion,” but nobody tells you “$2 billion has already come back in July.”
Second thing: June’s low was a shakeout, not a collapse.
That 58,000–60,000 move at the end of June saw liquidations across the whole network, mostly long positions, and the sentiment was extremely panicked. But look at on-chain data: long-term holders are accumulating, mid-sized whales are buying, miners’ reserves are stable, and the Puell Multiple is low.
Strategy sold a bit of BTC—so the market freaked out. But if you look closely, that volume is less than a fraction of what they already hold. They’re just doing an asset allocation adjustment, and you mistook it for the sky falling.
Third thing: macro is changing, but you might not read it right.
The Fed keeps the rate at 3.5%–3.75%, unchanged. June’s nonfarm payrolls came in weak and far below expectations—probability of further hikes drops, while expectations for rate cuts heat up.
One sentence from the Fed Chair can push BTC up 5% or down 8%. Weak employment + sticky inflation = fear of stagflation. But weak employment + inflation cooling = rate-cut expectations rise, and BTC basically takes off.
Key levels
Resistance above: 64,500–66,000 (EMA cluster + dense supply area) → 70,000+
Support below: 61,000–62,000 → 58,000–60,000 (a “strong bottom”)
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 61,000–62,000 and scale in in batches at low entries. Stop loss: 60,500. Targets: 65,000–66,500.
Around 64,800–65,500, if there’s no volume, you can try a small short position. Stop loss: above 66,500. Targets: 62,000–61,000.
For swing traders:
Wait until the daily close holds above 64,500 before getting on the right side. Target: 70,000+.
If it breaks below 61,000 and does so with volume, step aside first.
For long-term believers:
Set bids below 63,000 with your eyes closed. Ignore short-term fluctuations. Target: the 2028 halving-cycle peak.
Allocate 10–20% of total position to BTC, and keep cash for black swan events.
#PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription