Long-and-Short Tug-of-War Enters the Decisive Stage: July 17 Bitcoin Evening Market Deep Replay and Trading Strategy

On July 17, the crypto market saw violent fluctuations amid expectations for macro policy and battles over liquidity. After Bitcoin spiked up and then pulled back, it stabilized around $63,800. This article combines the latest macro data, the progress of regulatory bills, and on-chain capital flow trends to deeply analyze the current market’s long/short logic, and provides ideas for short-term trading in the evening.

The crypto market on July 17 once again validated the trading nature of “volatility never ends, and people’s minds never stop wavering.” Driven briefly by bullish news such as Trump’s remarks about rate cuts, Bitcoin surged, but because multiple earlier positive catalysts had already been priced in, longs took profits in a concentrated manner, triggering the first wave of a sharp selloff. Afterwards, the persistent hawkish remarks from Fed officials—including Waller—suppressed rate-cut expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, causing the market to see a second wave of heavy volume as price probed lower. In the derivatives market, high-leverage long positions were liquidated in a chain reaction, further amplifying the downturn. By the Asian session, Bitcoin had fallen back to around $63,800. Ethereum was down more than 2.6%. Within 24 hours, the total amount liquidated across the entire network exceeded $330 million. Market sentiment kept oscillating between “fear” and “wait-and-see.”

From a macro and fundamentals perspective, the market is currently at the intersection of multiple variables. On the one hand, cooling U.S. inflation data and weaker existing home contract data have, to a certain extent, eased interest-rate pressure and provided bottom support for risk assets. On the other hand, the market is highly focused on today’s off-site hearing for the “CLARITY Act” held in New York, and the bill’s advancement pace will directly affect regulatory expectations for the second half of the year. In terms of liquidity, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently reversed the streak of consecutive outflows, recording modest net inflows. This suggests institutional capital may be accumulating at lower levels, but the overall buyback replenishment momentum remains relatively mild and has not yet formed the force of a one-way trend.

On the technical side, Bitcoin’s daily chart is in a repair phase after bouncing off the $57,738 low. The market is steadily making higher lows, and the medium- to long-term long structure has not been broken. The current price is above the short-term EMA15 and EMA30 lines, indicating signs of stabilization in the near term. However, price remains suppressed by the EMA60 overhead resistance. On the four-hour chart, the price is oscillating narrowly near the Bollinger Bands midline. The MACD red histogram continues to shrink, showing that northbound momentum has somewhat weakened. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a sideways base-building pattern. Ethereum is moving in sync with BTC but trading weaker overall, with heavier speculative selling pressure. It is currently under pressure around the $1,900 level and needs to wait for clearer signals of capital rotation.

Overall, the current situation is likely a shakeout during an ongoing up move. The medium- to long-term bullish logic that CPI and PPI are declining has not changed. Evening operations should follow the approach of “wait for pullbacks to buy at support,” strictly control position sizing, and guard against short-term volatility caused by options expiration.

Reference for evening trading ideas:

Bitcoin (BTC): If the $63,400–$63,800 range stabilizes, you may try small-size long positions. Set the stop-loss below $63,000. The first target is $64,200; after a breakout, look toward around $66,000.

Ethereum (ETH): If the $1,850–$1,880 range stabilizes, you may attempt longs. Set the stop-loss at $1,800. Targets are $1,900–$1,950.

(Note: The crypto market is extremely volatile. The analysis above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to do risk control.) #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 $BTC