I. Overall Market Overview of BTC at This Time

BTC’s current price is around 62,700, after breaking below the lower bound of the previous core trading range of 63,600-65,500. After accelerating its decline to about 63,460 throughout the day, the short-term bullish structure has officially collapsed, entering a consolidation/adjustment phase.

The 4-hour MACD has formed a standard death cross, with a significant increase in the bearish histogram, indicating rapidly falling upside momentum. Currently, bearish strength dominates, and the main trading strategy is to sell on rallies, with long positions only used to enter and exit quickly during oversold rebounds.

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II. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels (From Nearest to Farthest):

Level Point Explanation

First Short-Term Resistance: 63,400-63,600 The lower bound of the previous consolidation range; core resistance for rebounds

Strong Resistance: 64,000-64,200 Previous support has turned into a strong resistance zone

Extreme Resistance: 64,500-64,700 Short range to add positions

Support Levels (From Nearest to Farthest):

Level Point Explanation

Short-Term Support: 62,500-62,800 The lower bound of the upward rebound channel; breaking below this level will end the rebound structure

Strong Support: 61,800-62,000 Near the previous swing low + the lower Bollinger Band

Extreme Support: 61,000-61,300 The downside risk lower bound shown in the institutional report

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III. Short-Selling Strategy (Current Main Theme)

Strategy Type Entry Range Take-Profit Stop Loss

Aggressive Short Selling Current price around 62,700 62,000→61,800 63,100
Short Entry on Rebound 63,400-63,600 62,500→62,000 64,000
Add Short Position 64,000-64,200 62,800-62,500 64,600

· Aggressive short entry: Enter with a small position near 62,700; first target 62,000, second target 61,800

· Short entry on rebound and hitting resistance: Enter in the 63,400-63,600 range; targets 62,500-62,000

· Add short position: Add shorts if the rebound reaches 64,000-64,200; targets 62,800-62,500

Bearish logic: The positive impact of CPI has been fully digested, plus the Fed’s hawkish statements have reignited expectations of rate hikes, and institutional funds are taking profits. The ETF has shifted from net inflows to slight net outflows, showing weakening long-term buying power. Short positions in the derivatives market have increased significantly, with one-day liquidations exceeding $100 million.

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IV. Buying Strategy (Only for Oversold Rebounds)

Strategy Type Entry Range Take-Profit Stop Loss

Oversold Rebound Buy 61,800-62,000 62,700→63,000 61,500
Extreme Bet Buy 61,000-61,300 62,000→62,500 60,800

· Oversold rebound buy: Consider a small position to trade a rebound when price reaches the 61,800-62,000 range, with targets 62,700-63,000.

· Extreme bet: If price sharply drops to 61,000-61,300, consider a small position for quick entry and exit, with a tight stop loss.

Buying logic: Only applies to oversold rebounds when price is approaching strong support levels; quick entry and exit, avoid holding positions for too long. At present, conditions for a sustained long position do not exist.

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V. Risk Warning

1. Downtrend Confirmed: Price has broken below the lower bound of the 63,600 trading range, and the 4-hour MACD cross has been confirmed. Selling on rallies is the main trading strategy.

2. Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears: The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and expectations of rate hikes have triggered selling pressure. However, JPMorgan Chase’s statement that the increase in cash reserves is a positive sign indicates the complex interaction between bullish and bearish factors.

3. Key Support Levels: 62,500-62,800 is the lower bound of the current upward channel. A breakdown below this level will accelerate the drop toward 61,800 or even lower.

4. Contract Risk Management: Given rising volatility, it is recommended to place stop-loss orders at 300-400 points per trade. Using high leverage and holding positions that are losing is strictly prohibited.

5. The strategies above only represent market views as reference and are not investment advice. Your profits and losses are entirely your own risk.

⚠️ Cryptocurrency trading carries extremely high risk. Please consider carefully before making any decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

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