After a sharp drop, a weak rebound! The 3970 life-or-death line is still holding for now, and downward pressure hasn’t eased!

At Thursday’s late session, gold surged to 4080 but met resistance and then suffered a heavy pullback. Today in the Asian session it accelerated to the downside; it briefly tested the key support at 3966 and then rebounded slightly. Currently it’s trading around 3998. Overall, it’s showing a bearish-dominated pattern of “breakdown to the downside with a weak rebound correction.” With the forces between bulls and bears out of balance, 3970 is the last line of defense for short-term bulls, and the 4000 psychological integer level has flipped from support into strong resistance.

Technically, bearish signals are strengthening across the board: at the daily level, the TRIX trend indicator remains in a deep dead cross; price has broken effectively below the 4000 psychological level and is staying below all moving averages. The 5/10/20-day moving averages form a bearish alignment, completely opening the medium-term downward channel. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD fast and slow lines are in a dead cross below the 0 axis and continue extending downward; the green histogram bars keep increasing, indicating sufficient bearish momentum release. The RSI hovers around 35—though it’s near the oversold zone, there’s no clear bullish divergence signal. Rebound momentum is seriously insufficient. The Bollinger Band lower rail is opening downward, and price is running along the lower rail, showing a strong bearish trend. Any short-term rebound is only a technical repair and is unlikely to change the medium-term downtrend.

Specific trading suggestions: watch the resistance pressure in the 4020-4040 range and the 4070-4090 range. If it meets resistance there without breaking, you can directly try shorting for a move toward the 4000 level. If the 4000 level is effectively broken, continue looking for new recent lows below. If support at the level holds, you can try short-term low dips around the level.
$XAU