A July global fund manager survey by Bank of America shows that market sentiment toward trading in AI semiconductors has significantly diverged. Most investors believe the trade is already overcrowded and see it as a key tail risk, but they have not yet fully shifted to shorting.

1. 82% of surveyed fund managers said “going long global semiconductors” is the most crowded trade globally, a figure that sets a new historical record.
2. Tech stock positioning was reduced from a net 26% overweight to a net 18% overweight, indicating investors are cutting back some long exposure.
3. 61% of investors do not expect ultra-large cloud providers to announce capital expenditure cuts this year, suggesting continued confidence in AI infrastructure investment.
4. The AI bubble was listed as one of the biggest tail risks, with the selection share rising from 28% in June to 45% in July.
5. The survey was conducted from July 2 to July 9, covering 210 fund managers managing a total of about $555B.