Be cautious with leverage

1. The recent three major retail-investor concentrated sectors in the US stock market have been “flooded”: the lights went out, the storage was lost, and a spaceflight exploded.
These three little dammed-up lakes—both Musk’s “SPCX, dreaming for suffocation,” and the logic thinking of the stock gods like Bottleneck, and the AI god’s prophecy from MRVL worth ten thousand billion—have completely ignited retail investor hormones; they rush to max out leverage and stuff money into sacks, and the lanes are packed beyond belief.
Apple’s big tech shouting “memory is too expensive and I can’t take it” is the last straw, triggering the cascade stampede of scoundrels running first and idiots suffering the consequences—a brutal deleveraging.
But the problem is, the Nasdaq is still at a peak near 29,000; next, watch the warsh show that is both “must have” and “must have”: both maintaining AI Capex (surviving in name only), and shrinking the balance sheet (upholding appearances in name only).
2. China’s first successful rocket booster recovery, Kimi3 taking the top spots, and Changxin going public—these are the three-hit “deepseek shock” this year.
With Changxin and Changcun listed, the A-share market sooner or later will have an A-share version of TSMC, KLA, Applied Materials… Aside from lithography equipment—the “Sino/Urchin” that has been locked onto as a lock-in “Zhi Zi”—semiconductor raw materials, equipment, and manufacturing will all replicate the EV model; three stinky hacks team up to beat Zhuge Liang.
Market demand is always first, especially the best-ever test engineer with built-in rations. If there are too many farm cattle and sheep, you won’t worry about not being able to develop your own feed brand. Looking across the global village, there’s also the vast market among the brothers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
3. The broader market hasn’t started a full-scale pullback yet; if it does, in terms of time it may extend to the period around Anthropic’s listing and the US midterm elections.
The banquet may already be over—those who are still alive wait for the next time the seats open.
Next time, remember to eat seven-tenths full; once you’ve eaten full, you leave.
4. It’s best not to use leverage; even bottom-fishing should be a reverse pyramid—be cautious and careful.
Once US stocks add leverage, they will also go to zero: LCID’s intraday crash exceeded 50%; the 2X ETF LCDL directly saw its NAV go negative—go to zero and delist.
US stocks and crypto, short-term slaughter-fests, are all gambling—same road, different path.
5. Self-summary: 🦙, hindsight expert after the fact—you can see it all clearly, down to the tiniest detail; if… that would have been great.
Even after going up 1:0, you must keep switching between offense and defense, and once you park the bus, you’re definitely going home.