#夏日创作营 Trump secretly meets with senators today and pushes the Clarity bill hard! Bitcoin dips to $64.4 thousand, Ethereum climbs 11% this week to outperform the broader market—turning point is near?

The celebration from CPI and PPI cooling down together lasted just two days, and the crypto market quickly saw a pullback under the double pressure of profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tension. Bitcoin fell from a one-month high of $65,500 to above $64k. Ethereum retraced in sync. But in the brief lull, Trump will privately meet with senators today and personally push to get the《Clarity bill》over the finish line—this legislative standoff may be the key variable deciding the second half of July. As of July 17, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $64,400-$64,500 range, down about 0.7%-1.1% over 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,870-$1,880, down about 1.7%-2.5% over 24 hours, but for the week it is still up about 11%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 27, shifting from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear,” but market sentiment has not truly recovered.
One. Market snapshot: CPI tailwind fades, both coins dip to key levels
On July 17, after two days of sharp rallies, the crypto market entered a pullback and digestion phase. Bitcoin fell along with US stocks on Thursday, down about 1.5% from the three-week high it set the prior day, and is currently consolidating around $64,500. Earlier, US June CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, briefly lifting crypto assets and US stocks, but tech stocks were later hit by selling, putting simultaneous pressure on the crypto market. BTC had risen to $65,500 on Wednesday, setting a new one-month high, but after surging it quickly triggered profit-taking. Korean media data shows that earlier in the day Bitcoin dipped to $63,762, down about 1.69%. Ethereum’s decline was slightly larger than Bitcoin’s, around $1,870, down about 2.49% over 24 hours. Still, Ethereum is up about 11% for the week, far outpacing Bitcoin. Spot Ethereum ETF flows into the first three days of this week totaled $96 million; BlackRock’s funds absorbed most of the capital, and Robinhood Chain’s new demand also boosted ETH performance. Open interest fell from the five-week high of 14.45 million ETH reached on Wednesday to 14.35 million ETH, as some longs exited the market voluntarily. For altcoins, Solana is down 1.30%, Dogecoin down 0.60%, and XRP is flat. Hyperliquid (HYPE) plunged 9.06% to $61.03, driven by structural sell pressure from monthly token unlocks of about 1% (around $645 million). Total crypto market cap is about $64k, and Bitcoin’s market share is maintained at 58.11%.
Two. Three drivers behind the pullback: profit-taking, “cold water” on rate cuts, and geopolitics reigniting
Why did the celebration fade so quickly after CPI and PPI both fell? Three factors released in the same window.
Driver one: profit-taking after the spike
After Bitcoin hit a one-month high of $65,500 on Wednesday, profits were taken aggressively. On-chain data shows that long- and short-term holders sold in sync around $65,000. Bitcoin built up a large amount of short-term profit-taking above $65,000; selling pressure concentrated once price reached that region. The data also indicates that changes in derivatives positioning show the current drop is mainly from the liquidation of prior long exposure, not from new large-scale shorting.
Driver two: Wash “task not done yet” extinguishes rate-cut hopes
At a House hearing, Federal Reserve Chair Wash issued a clear warning: “Some may say, ‘The mission is accomplished’ from this morning’s data, but that is not my view. There is no tolerance for persistent high inflation.” Even though CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, Wash explicitly said not to get overly optimistic from a single set of data. Polymarket shows the probability of a rate hike in July has crashed from 34% to 6.7%, but Wash’s hawkish remarks continue to suppress risk appetite.
Driver three: US-Iran conflict heats up again
On Thursday, Iran launched attacks on US military bases within Gulf neighbor countries, and the US continued carrying out airstrikes. As geopolitical risk rises, global markets’ risk appetite was suppressed, and crypto alongside US stock futures both weakened. As a result, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily outflow of $425 million. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, ended the prior eight-week streak of outflows. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $289 million in net inflows in the first two days of this week, but the geopolitical shock interrupted that recovery momentum.
Three. Today’s focus: Trump secretly meets senators; the Clarity bill enters the final sprint
Under the surface of price pullbacks, the regulatory battle is entering its most critical stage. Per The Block, the US Congress is pushing the《Clarity bill》into the final sprint. On Thursday afternoon (today Beijing time), President Trump will meet Republican senators Bernie Moreno, Cynthia Lummis, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, aiming to have Trump signal support for the bill’s moral provisions. Republican House member William Timmons of South Carolina said: “This is one of the president’s top priorities, and it’s a congressional bipartisan issue… We will get it done.”
However, the biggest obstacle comes from Democrats’ insistence on the moral provisions. Trump’s recently disclosed financial reports show his crypto-related income is as high as $140 million, accounting for more than half of his $2.2 billion total reported income for 2025. Democratic senator Ruben Gallego said clearly: “Without strong ethics provisions, there won’t be Democratic votes.” Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, warned that if amendments related to predictive markets are added, it could become a “poison pill.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune hopes to complete the Senate vote before the August 7 recess. But even if the Senate passes it, the bill still needs to be sent back to the House for further review, so the overall timeline could be delayed by months again. Galaxy Research previously lowered the probability of passage in 2026 to 50%. The outcome of this meeting will largely determine whether the bill can clear successfully before the August recess.
Four. ETF fund flows diverge: Bitcoin outflows, Ethereum attracts inflows
This week’s ETF fund flows saw a rare divergence. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily outflow of $425 million on Thursday due to geopolitical tension. Although net inflows of nearly $289 million had been recorded in the first two days of this week, the geopolitical shock interrupted the rebound.
JPMorgan said that spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have been highly volatile in recent weeks: after inflows last week, this week turned to outflows. Ethereum ETFs have shown stronger resilience. Over the first three days of this week, they attracted $96 million in inflows, with BlackRock’s funds taking in most of the capital. Ethereum ETFs ended the prior eight-week streak of outflows, with institutional funds rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has recently set new highs in both inflow and trading volume. This divergence explains why Ethereum’s weekly rise (11%) significantly outperformed Bitcoin—institutions are re-pricing Ethereum’s valuation.
Five. Key price levels and liquidation alert lines
Bitcoin: $64,000 becomes the near-term line between longs and shorts
BTC is currently consolidating in the $64,400-$64,500 range, down about $1,000 from the $65,500 peak.
Key supports: $64,000-$64,200: the key resistance before is now support; if it holds, the long structure remains intact $63,500-$63,700: the 200-week moving average zone, also the launch point of the recent rebound $61,183: if it breaks, the liquidation intensity of accumulated longs on major CEXs will reach $21.8k
Key resistances: $65,500-$66,000: short positions are concentrated here; a breakout could trigger a short squeeze $66,878: if it breaks out, the liquidation intensity of accumulated shorts on major CEXs will reach $1.01B
The liquidation heatmap shows shorts are concentrated between $65,500 and $66,000, about 3% away from the current market price. If the price breaks above $65,600, it may trigger those short positions and could accelerate the move to $67,000. Conversely, if it falls below $61,183, it would trigger long liquidations at the $1.11B scale.
Ethereum: $1,870 becomes the near-term battleground
ETH is currently in the $1,870-$1,880 range, with the 24-hour low touching $1,860.
Key supports: $1,850-$1,870: the recent demand zone; if it holds, the rebound structure remains intact $1,817-$1,849: the demand zone where buyers continuously hold, forming a potential higher-low structure
Key resistances: $1,900: the psychological level; a breakout opens up upside space $1,936: the 24-hour high; reclaiming requires enough momentum. ETH is still below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298.74, meaning the downtrend on the higher timeframe has not yet been broken. But Ethereum experienced a more brutal crash, which also explains why its rebound momentum may be stronger.
Six. Outlook: three major events decide the direction for the second half of July
Entering the second half of July, three key variables will determine where the crypto market goes:
Variable one: outcome of Trump’s meeting with senators (today).
This is the most important near-term catalyst. If Trump signals support for the moral provisions, Democrats may loosen their stance, and the bill could pass before the August recess; if both sides remain deadlocked, the legislation may be pushed to September or even after the midterm elections.
Variable two: the FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Although the probability of a rate hike in July has fallen to 6.7%, Wash’s hawkish stance means the door to a September hike is still not closed. The direction of the dot plot will determine the policy tone for the rest of the year.
Variable three: the direction of the US-Iran situation.
Geopolitical conflict is still escalating; if conditions worsen further, oil prices may keep rising and inflation expectations may rebound. Bitcoin ETF flows have been affected as well, with a daily outflow of $425 million; geopolitical risk remains the biggest uncertainty hanging over the market.
Seven. Trading advice: don’t panic on pullbacks; don’t get greedy chasing highs
For short-term traders, the market is currently in a pullback and digestion phase after the CPI tailwind fades, and direction is not yet clear.
BTC strategy: watch how it holds the $64,000-$64,200 support zone. If price stabilizes in that range and the Trump meeting releases a bullish signal, you can participate in the rebound with a light position size, targeting $65,500-$66,000. $65,500-$66,000 is a dense zone of short positions; a breakout could trigger a short squeeze. If it effectively breaks below $63,500, be alert to the risk of further downside toward $61,183.
ETH strategy: watch the $1,850-$1,870 support zone. Ongoing inflows into Ethereum ETFs provide fundamental support. Pullbacks into the support zone that stabilize are a relatively good opportunity to accumulate at low prices. Resistance overhead is $1,900-$1,936.
For mid-to-long term investors
There are positive macro changes—CPI and PPI have continued to come in below expectations, the probability of a July rate hike has fallen to 6.7%, and Ethereum ETF outflows have ended after eight weeks. On the regulatory front, Trump personally pushes the Clarity bill today, and the probability of a regulatory breakthrough is rising. The $62,000-$64,000 area still offers value for phased allocation from a long-term perspective. The outcome of today’s Trump meeting with senators will be the key signal for whether regulatory tailwinds can actually land.
Keep patience until the meeting outcome becomes clear, and gradually accumulate with small position sizes and a slow pace.
Core risk warnings:
Uncertainty around the Clarity bill: if the deadlock on moral provisions cannot be broken, the bill may be delayed until after the midterm elections
Geopolitical conflict escalation: the US-Iran conflict is still escalating, and the geopolitical risk premium may further push up Bitcoin
ETF volatility: daily outflow of $425 million means institutional fund flows are unstable Wash’s hawkish stance: even if CPI cools, Wash still emphasizes “the mission is not done yet”—the probability of a September rate hike cannot be ignored! $BTC ‌$ETH ‌