July 17, 2026 (Friday) ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures: Complete Technical Execution Trading Strategy

I. Core Market Direction

ETH’s current price is 1868. The行情 is highly correlated with BTC, trading within the 63600–65500 box range. Earlier on the daily chart, it surged to 1950 but was rejected and then pulled back. Bullish momentum has weakened significantly. Daily RSI has fallen back into a neutral-to-weak range. The Bollinger Bands have tightened and entered range consolidation. The larger timeframe is still a technical rebound after a decline, and no trend reversal has formed. For intraday trading: the core is to sell short on rebounds under resistance; support at lower levels is only for light-position longs. No frequent opening within the middle range. Close intraday short-term contracts on the same day, strictly tied to BTC’s two key inflection points to judge strength or weakness.

II. Key Intraday Layered Levels

Resistance levels (from near to far)

1. First short-term resistance: 1890–1910 (moving-average confluence resistance; intraday long/short inflection point)
2. Medium-term strength/weakness inflection: 1950 (prior rebound high; only a volume-supported hold can reverse short-term weakness)
3. Strong resistance: 1990–2000 (integer level + dense historical trapped-longs/locked-in positions area)

Support levels (from near to far)

1. Immediate short-term support: 1838–1840 (4-hour dense成交区; intraday defensive floor for short-term trades)
2. Rebound life-line support: 1815–1820 (50-day moving average overlap area; breaking this ends the structure of the current short-term rebound)
3. Trend strong support: 1765

III. Three Standardized Execution Entry Plans

Strategy 1: Sell short on rebounds under resistance (intraday preferred)

Entry conditions: Price rebounds into the 1890–1910 zone and closes with long upper wicks; 1-hour RSI > 68 and shows stalling. Place short orders in batches.
Unified stop-loss: Above 1920 (a valid breakout through the resistance zone means the short thesis fails; exit unconditionally)
Take-profit in batches:
① First target 1840; reduce 50% position; move stop-loss up to breakeven at entry cost
② Second target 1815; close the remaining position entirely and exit
Add-on rule: After a second rebound returns to around 1900 and fails to break through, you may add in the same size; stop-loss remains unified and unchanged.

Strategy 2: Buy low on support stabilization (only for light-position tactical longs; no heavy leverage against the trend)

Entry conditions: Pull back to 1838–1840, form a long lower wick and show sell-off stopping; two consecutive hourly candles stabilize. Scale in long positions.
Stop-loss: Below 1825 (breaks intraday short-term defensive support)
Take-profit target: Exit all near the 1890 resistance area; do not hold swing longs for the long term.

Strategy 3: Follow the move with breakouts / breakdowns

1. Break upward for longs
If 1-hour candles’ bodies rise with volume and hold above the 1910 resistance, then pull back to around 1885 with strong follow-through and then go long. Stop-loss: 1860. First target: 1950 inflection point. If it spikes up and then quickly falls back to below 1910, treat it as a fake breakout and close the long immediately and exit.

2. Break down for shorts
If the 4-hour Kline body validly breaks below the 1815 life-line support, follow the move and chase the short. Stop-loss: above 1845. First target: toward the 1765 strong support.

IV. Hard, Unified Risk-Control Rules

1. Leverage setting: fixed 3–5x for short-term trades; never exceed 8x. Use isolated risk with the cross/逐仓 (isolated) model.
2. Position management: initial margin for any single entry must not exceed 5% of total account funds. Maximum loss per single trade must be within 1% of total funds.
3. Profit/loss requirement: The win/loss ratio for every entered order must be ≥ 1:2. If the profit space is insufficient, skip opening the trade.
4. Holding rules: In range-bound, oscillating markets, all short-term positions must be fully closed by the end of the same day to avoid overnight pin insertion/extreme-spike risks. Only in one-sided breakout-by-volume conditions can you keep a light swing position.
5. Inter-market risk control (BTC linkage): When BTC has neither broken above the 65500 resistance nor fallen below the 63600 support—these two inflection points—reduce the frequency of ETH trading, and focus on waiting/observing.
6. Handling fake breakouts: If price pierces key levels but volume shrinks and the market rapidly returns to the original range within a short time, close at the first moment to avoid the main-force washout.

V. Two Contingency Plans for Different Market Conditions

Plan 1: Follow the broader market strength and move up (probability 39%)
BTC breaks and holds above 65500 with volume, pushing ETH to break above 1910 resistance. Pause short positions at high levels; switch back to the idea of buying on pullbacks at lows. Focus on testing the 1950 inflection point. Only after it holds, reassess the upside space above 1990–2000.

Plan 2: Weak pressure leading to a pullback (probability 61%)
1890 repeatedly meets resistance, turns, and turns downward. Stick to the high-short idea. If the 1840 support fails, look ahead to the 1815 life-line. Once 1815 is validly broken to the downside, add to shorts in line with the move and test support around the 1765 area.

VI. Trade Timing by Time Segment

1. Asian session (intraday daytime): liquidity is low. Only place limit orders and wait for execution near the high/low boundary levels. No blind chasing at current price.
2. European/US session (after 20:00 in the evening): capital liquidity releases more concentratedly. Closely watch the two key inflection points—1910 resistance and 1815 support. Once volume-based breakdown signals appear, enter following the move.
3. Final half hour: in a range-bound oscillation, unify and close all open positions to avoid extreme risks from overnight news-driven volatility #USDT充值理财双重奏 $ETH ‌