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Jefferies: The optical module market will triple by 2027, and 1.6T is still short by 30%.

DeepFlowTech
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Deep Tide TechFlow news: According to a July 15 optical experts conference call from Jefferies, the optical module market will double in 2026 and triple in 2027, but 1.6T optical modules will remain in continuous shortage for 30% of 2026-2027. Shipments of 800G optical modules in 2026 are expected to be about 40-42 million units, with demand exceeding 45 million units, leaving a gap of about 10%; shipments of 1.6T optical modules in 2026 are expected to be about 18 million units, with demand of about 26 million units, leaving a gap of 30%. Upstream DSP and 200G EML chips are monopolized by U.S. and Japan companies such as Broadcom, Marvell, Lumentum, and Sumitomo Electric, and China’s domestic substitution still needs time. Indium phosphide (InP) is a key link; 70% of global supply is in China, and Yunnan Germanium Industry is a core target. Desay Battery’s 200G EML is expected to move into mass production in the second half of 2026, which is a key milestone for domestic substitution. Jefferies believes optical module demand is certain, but the upstream supply landscape determines how profits are distributed, and the progress of breakthroughs in the InP supply chain and 200G EML is worth close attention.
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