Oracle $ORCL has been dropping terribly recently 📉

Oracle plunges 61%—$638B worth of orders couldn’t save the stock price? The real reason is only one!

The share price fell from $345 down to $124 in a straight line, a drop of more than 60%. Many people think the company has a problem, but the truth is the opposite.

The latest earnings report is quite impressive: fourth-quarter revenue was $19.2 billion, up 21% year over year; earnings per share were $2.11, beating market expectations. The strongest part is its AI cloud business—revenue of $5.8 billion, up a massive 93% year over year.

Even more exaggeratedly, Oracle has $638B in unfulfilled orders, up 363%. Put simply, a lot of years of orders for the future have already been signed in advance.

So why is the stock still falling like this?

The reason is simple—two words: burning money.

Over the past year, it poured $55.7 billion into AI data centers. In the new fiscal year, it plans to continue investing $70 billion, while also raising $40 billion.

The market isn’t worried that Oracle has no orders—it’s worried that the money is being spent too fast, and when it can truly be recouped.

So right now, Oracle is like a contractor who has a huge stack of orders in hand. There’s no shortage of work, but the upfront advance is too heavy, and everyone is waiting for when it will start making money.

If AI demand continues to explode in the future, these orders will gradually convert into profits, and Oracle still has a chance to see a valuation re-rating.

Strong Brother’s core viewpoint

* AI business growth is extremely strong—fundamentals are fine.
* $638B in orders is Oracle’s biggest backing.
* The stock price drop isn’t because performance is bad, but because the market is worried about spending too much.
* Next, the most critical thing is to see when orders turn into profits.

Strong Brother’s compiled core data

* Stock price: $345 → $142 (down 58%)
* Q4 revenue: $19.2 billion (+21%)
* Earnings per share: $2.11 (above expectations)
* AI cloud revenue: $5.8 billion (+93%)
* Unfulfilled orders: $638B (+363%)
* Capital expenditures already invested: $55.7 billion
* Planned investment for the new fiscal year: $70 billion

Oracle doesn’t lack orders now—it just spends too much. Whether the future will take off or keep shaking depends on when these orders start turning into real money.