Yang Guang bit | July 17 $ETH precise strategy, take control of the trend end to end

Key Takeaways

ETH has continued to fall from the 1946.75 peak, with the intraday low dipping as far as around 1842.35. The short-term long structure has officially been broken, entering a phase of corrective adjustment. Any bullish sentiment from the CPI is fully digested; combined with the Fed’s hawkish statements reigniting rate-hike expectations and the broader market weakening overall, ETH follows with a pullback as well, with bearish forces taking the lead. The 1870-1880 area turns into a strong resistance zone. Below, it will first test the 1840 short-term support; if that breaks, price may further dip toward the 1820 region. Overall today is mainly about rebound into the highs; low-buy only for oversold bounce—quick in, quick out.

Today’s Plan

Entry timing: rebound into the 1870-1880 area
Add to position zone: rebound into the 1890-1900 area
Stop-loss: above 1910

Take-profit by tiers
First take-profit target: 1845-1855
Second take-profit target: 1820-1830

Light-position long reference: buy on the pullback at 1835-1845, stop-loss at 1820, target 1865-1875—quick in, quick out

News Breakdown—Funds—Technology

1. International Finance & Ecosystem News

1. International finance: June CPI bullish sentiment has fully played out. Multiple Fed officials have made concentrated hawkish remarks, stressing that falling inflation does not mean the rate-cut cycle has begun; there is still a rate-hike option kept for the rest of the year. Rate-hike expectations have warmed up again. The U.S. dollar index rebounded after stabilizing, and risk assets face overall pressure, with ETH also tracking the broader market’s weakness.
2. Geopolitics: Marginal easing in the standoff around the Middle East’s Strait of Hormuz caused a rapid drop in safe-haven sentiment. The geopolitical premium that previously supported the market has completely faded. The market has returned to being dominated by macro fundamentals again, while bearish power continues to release.
3. Ecosystem: The Ethereum Layer2 ecosystem is running smoothly, but there’s a lack of independent positive catalysts. Spot ETF approval expectations have temporarily entered a lull, and the market has lost its independent upward momentum—so it continues to adjust in tandem with the broader market.

2. On-Chain & Capital Data

1. Institutional funds: The inflow pace into ETH spot ETFs has slowed significantly. The single-day net inflow amount has narrowed notably. Institutions have shifted from actively catching the dip to observing; long-term buying strength has weakened, and with the lack of institutional support, adjustment pressure increases.
2. Futures funds: In the derivatives market, shorts have added aggressively. The long/short open interest ratio continues to decline. Longs are concentrated in liquidation; leveraged funds stampede to exit. Near term, selling pressure is heavy. The bearish trend is clear—rebounds are an opportunity to set up shorts at highs.
3. Whale movements on-chain: Large whale addresses have concentratedly moved into exchanges for ETH, increasing in-market sell pressure significantly. Exchange inventory continues to rise, and coin-distribution actions are evident. This adjustment cycle may have a further extension. $ETH ‌#ETH站稳1900美元