Defending champion or a new king crowned? In the World Cup final, the AIs actually stood on the same side

Original | Odaily Star Daily News ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Asher ( @Asher 0210 )_

At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 20, the 2026 World Cup will decide the final champion between Argentina and Spain. On one side is Argentina, trying to complete a title defense and chase back-to-back World Cup wins; on the other is Spain, which has maintained steady form all the way, and has reached the final with a defense that is almost impossible to break.

Spain’s path to qualification showcases extremely strong stability. After entering the knockout stage, they successively defeated Austria, Portugal, Belgium, and France, and against multiple strong teams they firmly controlled the tempo of the matches. Especially in the semifinal against France, Spain didn’t give Mbappé’s front line too much room for counterattacks, and ultimately advanced 2:0. In seven matches, they conceded only 1 goal and kept six clean sheets; their stable defense and powerful midfield control became their confidence for going all the way.

Argentina’s path to qualification, however, is full of danger and comebacks. After entering the knockout stage, they almost never won any match comfortably. Against Cape Verde and Egypt, Argentina won narrowly 3:2; in the quarterfinal against Switzerland, they only scored consecutively late in extra time; in the semifinal against England, they were still trailing in the 85th minute, yet they completed a comeback by relying on Messi’s consecutive assists, with Enzo and Lautaro finishing the turnaround.

In addition, this final also has a storyline that feels almost like a movie script.

During a charity shoot in 2007, a young Messi held Yamal—who was still a baby—and bathed him. At the time, no one would have imagined that nearly 20 years later, the two would face each other for the first time in their professional careers in a World Cup final.

Today, Messi is already 39, while Yamal has just turned 19. One could be approaching what may be his last World Cup match, while the other is standing right at the door of his own era. A photo from nearly 20 years ago also adds another layer of meaning to this final—a handover of generations.

Before the AIs predict who will lift the trophy, let’s first review how they performed in the two semifinals (related content can be read: Semifinal AI Prediction Free-for-All: Is France in the bag? England vs. Argentina hangs in the balance).

Most semifinals saw “upsets,” Gemini nailed two matches

In the World Cup Round of 8, 6 AIs all picked France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. But in the semifinals, the AIs’ overall predictions were a bit “weak.”

In France vs. Spain, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen not only all backed France to advance, they also all predicted France would win 2:1. Five models believed France could solve the match via quick counters by exploiting the space left after Spain’s fullbacks pushed up. The result: France never produced the counterattacks they expected; instead, Spain controlled the tempo throughout and ultimately eliminated France 0:2. The only Gemini pick for Spain’s side nailed the direction of qualification, but it also predicted the match would go to a penalty shootout—yet it didn’t guess the process either.

In England vs. Argentina, the choices among 6 AIs were split evenly. Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen supported England, while ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favored Argentina. In the end, Argentina completed a turnaround 2:1. All three models supporting Argentina guessed the qualification direction; only Gemini also hit the scoreline.

After the two semifinals, Gemini became the only model that correctly picked both teams that reached the final, and it turned in the most accurate prediction of this round. However, when it came to the final and the champion, the 6 AIs again stood on the same side.

The final replays a consensus pick: all 6 AIs back Spain

PPP prediction market tooling monitoring shows that in predict.fun’s prediction event “2026 World Cup Final: Argentina vs Spain,” Argentina’s win probability is temporarily 27%; draw probability 32%; Spain’s win probability 43%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Spain’s championship probability is 59%, while Argentina’s is 41%.

The championship probabilities given by the prediction market don’t differ much, but the 6 AIs’ stances are highly consistent: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen all believe Spain will win the tournament.

Why do the AIs all predict Spain will win the championship?

The reasons the AIs give for backing Spain are highly consistent: defense, midfield control, and physical reserves.

Spain’s most convincing advantage is their nearly unbeatable defense in this World Cup. In the first 7 matches they conceded only 1 goal, and after entering the knockout stage they also successively limited Portugal, Belgium, and France. Although Argentina has stronger attacking firepower, against Spain’s compact shape it’s difficult for them to regain as much open space for counterattacks as before.

Midfield control determines what kind of tempo the match may unfold at. Rodri is responsible for organizing the attack, Olmo keeps arriving into the front-side channels, and Yamal can continuously tug at Argentina’s defense from the flank. Argentina is good at compressing the central areas, then quickly complete attacks through Messi, Álvarez, and Lautaro; but Spain can reduce the number of attack-defense transitions in the match by keeping the ball for long periods, making it harder for Argentina to enter their most familiar rhythm.

Physical reserves are also a variable that the AIs commonly mention. Spain finished their semifinal a day earlier than Argentina and their qualification process was relatively easier; Argentina, meanwhile, played Switzerland for 120 minutes, then battled England all the way into stoppage time. If the match is dragged into extra time, Spain’s younger lineup and more ample rotation could become the advantage that decides the champion.

5 AIs don’t think Spain can win within 90 minutes

Even though the direction toward the championship is completely aligned, when it comes to how Spain wins the match, the 6 models still have different judgments.

With the best semifinal performance, Gemini predicted a 1:1 draw in regular time, then extra time remained tight and goalless, and ultimately the champion was decided by a penalty shootout—choosing Spain to win in the end.

ChatGPT, Grok, and Qianwen’s predictions are close; all three leaned toward a 1:1 stalemate in regular time. Argentina has the ability to level the score thanks to Messi’s organization and the efficiency of their front line, but once the match enters extra time, Spain’s more sufficient physical reserves and squad depth will gradually show, and they will eventually score the decisive goal in the 30 minutes of extra time.

Claude didn’t predict a specific scoreline; instead, it believed the match would be locked in a low-score range (1:1, 1:0, and 0:0). It emphasized the cautious atmosphere of the final: both sides are likely to maintain parity for a long time, until a set piece, a counterattack, or an individual performance breaks the balance.

DeepSeek is the only one that leans more toward Spain resolving the match within 90 minutes. It backs Spain to continue their previous defensive performance, limit Argentina’s attack, and win directly 2:0 or 2:1.

Before the semifinals, 5 AIs had all agreed on France advancing—and then Spain beat them 2:0, causing all the AIs to get slapped. This time, will Spain cash in on the advantages of their overall strength, or will Argentina once again drag the match into familiar despair and find an opportunity to turn it around?