$64k gained and lost again—will the rebound hold or will it flip?

As of July 17, Bitcoin is trading at about $64,418, down 0.71% over the past 24 hours. It had previously dipped below the $64k level. This spot is precisely the key resistance zone that has repeatedly stalled price action over the past two weeks.

Macro tailwinds and geopolitical headwinds are colliding. The U.S. June PPI came in below expectations, and the rate-hike probability for July has sharply fallen to 12.3%. BlackRock CEO Fink also publicly said he is no longer worried about excessive leverage in the crypto market. However, the positives were quickly offset by geopolitical risks—U.S. forces carried out consecutive airstrikes on Iran, boosting safe-haven sentiment, while a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on risk assets.

On-chain data is sending a bottoming signal, but demand remains the fatal weakness. Glassnode shows that capitulation-style selling by long-term holders has retreated from its peak. Holders in the 1–2 year range have seen realized losses dip below the 30-day moving average, turning downward—historically, this pattern often suggests the most intense sell-pressure phase has already passed. Still, Bitcoin’s explicit demand as of July 9 remains -75,000 BTC, and spot ETFs have continued to show net outflows since July. “Sell pressure exhaustion” does not equal “buying inflow.”

Technicals: the ceiling is close at hand. The cost-basis benchmark for short-term holders is around $69,000, while $72,200 is more widely seen as the “life-or-death threshold.” Reclaim it to open upside room; fail and the range-bound action continues. The 50-day moving average is still below the 200-day moving average, and the “death cross” signal has not been cleared.

Bitcoin is at a crossroads between “dense bottoming signals” and “the trend has not yet reversed.” Whether a rebound can develop into a full reversal depends on whether spot buyers can truly take over the baton. #夏日创作营