【7.17 Spot Gold Early Report】

The US’s June moderate inflation data may only be a one-off snapshot during a geopolitical ceasefire “dividend” window; it is phased data under special circumstances, not a sustainable trend of US inflation easing. With Middle East geopolitical risks fully resuming and the energy supply crisis returning, it is worth questioning whether the asset-pricing consensus built by major investment banks on optimistic geopolitical assumptions still fits the current situation. In the short term, the strong trend in the US dollar and crude oil has higher certainty; gold, suppressed by real interest rates, is likely to trade weaker. This structural setup will become the core main theme for the market ahead.

The daily K-line once again reinforces the 3,970 support area with a large bearish candle. The moving averages form a dead cross, the Bollinger Bands shift downward, and price moves within a descending channel. MACD turns, while KDJ dead-cross volume expands, and the structure faces clear pressure. Selling short on rallies under pressure is the main short-term line. On the daily chart, resistance levels to watch are 4,015 and 4,072. Combined with a very weak outlook on the 1-hour chart—price running in a falling channel below the middle-to-lower Bollinger band—the trading volume also clearly weakens. In the early session, watch for price-repair testing with resistance at the middle band. And today is Friday—watch for systemic risk caused by the time window!

For trading, it is recommended to look for short positions around 4,015/4,020. Set a stop-loss at 4,035 (if the stop is swept, reverse to go long). For pullbacks, consider long positions in the 3,950/40 area, with a stop-loss at 3,930. (Personal view, for reference only)