—The drop isn’t that big, but what’s really worth worrying about is that people are starting to believe again that “the market will adjust too.” Once sentiment shifts, it often moves faster than the price itself. Trader, writer

The global market again sees a replay of “the dollar is rising and everything falls”:
- US stocks fell across the board; the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.47%;
- Gold was the most representative asset last night: it fell in a first wave at 20:30, another wave at 01:00, and ultimately broke below the $4,000 round-number level;
- Oil prices edged down; US crude is slightly below $80, pressured by profit-taking;
- The US Dollar Index held its uptrend and ended two straight days of decline.
First, on the surface, Thursday wasn’t particularly bad—US stocks didn’t fall that much. The issue is that the index is being dragged down by the most core storyline of this year: semiconductors and AI hardware. As long as this storyline keeps sliding, even if the index looks stable, market sentiment will remain fragile. Yesterday’s decline mattered because people no longer believe that US stocks only go up and never down, and some think the market may be starting a new round of adjustment. Second, economic data also didn’t give the market a comfortable answer. Retail sales weren’t weak, initial jobless claims came in below expectations, and the Philadelphia Fed survey rebounded sharply, accompanied by price indicators rising—July’s rate hike is off the table, but September is still looming. Third, oil prices are another unstable factor: US crude hit close to $81 intraday before falling back to below $79, showing that $80 is still an effective dividing line. If oil prices manage to hold above $80 again, inflation and interest-rate pressure will return. Fourth, the real risk on Friday is “not daring to hold positions before the weekend.” The conflict in the Middle East hasn’t ended, US strikes on Iran are still ongoing, and risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are all present. As Friday enters the late session, some funds may reduce weekend risk exposure. If oil prices spike late in the day and safe-haven buying returns, US stocks could face pressure. So Friday’s走势 may be: try to repair during the day, then watch weekend risks at the close.