#黄金早报 | July 17

### Core data
- **XAU** $3,977.41 (**-2.03%**, -$82) fell for two straight days
- **COMEX** $3,979.9 (-1.77%)
- 24h range: $3,950 - $4,043 (hit a high of $4,043 intraday, then plunged)
- **DXY** 100.76 (+0.27%) | **US 2Y** ~4.15% | **WTI** $78.95 (-0.82%)
- **AU9999** ~870 yuan/gram | Brand jewelry gold 1224-1229 yuan/gram | Recycled ~866-870 yuan/gram
- Silver $55.51 (-3.97%) | Platinum $1,623 (+3.57%)
- ATH $5,405 (Jan) → current pullback **-26.4%**

### What happened overnight

**① June CPI cools broadly beyond expectations** (already released)
- CPI YoY 3.5% (forecast 3.8%, prior 4.2%), **MoM -0.4%** (largest monthly drop since April 2020)
- Core CPI YoY 2.6% (forecast 2.8%), MoM 0% (forecast 0.2%)
- The main driver was energy MoM -5.7%; core services/goods weakened across the board
- Market reaction: rate-hike probability plunged from ~50% to 15.5%, and 2Y US Treasuries crashed 14bp to 4.15%

**② The first congressional appearance by Worsh** is hawkish
- “Absolutely no tolerance for persistent high inflation,” “One month of data doesn’t mean the task is complete”
- After his speech, the dollar rebounded from 100.50 to 100.76, and all gains in gold were fully given back
- The September rate-hike probability still holds at ~57.8%

**③ The sixth night of US-Iran conflict**
- The US military carried out airstrikes on Iran for the sixth consecutive night, hitting Abbas Port, Bushehr, Qeshm Island, and Avaseh areas
- Trump: Next week strikes on bridges and power plants; US forces fired Hellfire missiles at the launching sites for oil tankers trying to break through the blockade
- The Strait of Hormuz sees only 13 ships transiting (pre-war 1/10)
- Iran claims it is ready with 500 intercontinental ballistic missiles to threaten the US mainland
- Oil prices fell slightly instead—markets are pricing more for demand-side disruption than supply-side interruption

### Technicals
- Daily: a big bearish candle; **$4,000 is completely lost**, and the short side is aligned
- KDJ forms a dead cross; MACD green momentum histogram increases
- 4H timeframe: moving averages pointing down; TRIX dead cross
- **Support**: $3,950 → $3,940 → $3,812 (lower edge of the channel)
- **Resistance**: $4,020 → $4,042 → $4,060

Key contradiction
CPI cools far beyond expectations → gold should benefit (lowering rate-hike expectations), but the hawkish Worsh remarks + dollar rebound + ongoing outflows from gold ETFs → gold doesn’t rise and instead falls. This shows that in the current gold pricing logic, **the weight of positioning and the dollar/interest-rate expectations > safe-haven demand**.

### Strategy
- Short term: weak consolidation in the $3,950-4,000 range; don’t chase shorts or bottom-fish
- If the CPI-cooling trend is confirmed by subsequent PCE/employment data → gold may rebound toward $4,100+
- If the US-Iran situation continues escalating → an oil-price rebound will reignite inflation expectations, putting pressure on gold on both sides
- **Watch**: today’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, industrial production, and next week’s FOMC (7/28-29)

- Today: US June retail sales (released, +0.2% MoM slowdown) + preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment
- 7/28-29: **FOMC meeting** (current market expects a July hold unchanged with probability 84.5%)
- Ongoing: daily updates on the US-Iran situation—oil price is the core variable for the inflation transmission 🪨