US CPI cools, but oil prices rise—fresh uncertainties emerge on the Fed’s rate-cut path

US June CPI fell to 3.5% year over year, below market expectations, hitting the lowest level since April 2020. The cooling inflation data initially reinforced market expectations for Fed rate cuts, but a recent rise in energy prices has brought new uncertainty.

Analysts say an oil price rebound could push up overall inflation pressure, especially as CPI has already recorded a month-over-month increase. As energy prices continue to move higher, the Fed may become more cautious and avoid signaling easing too early.

Current market attention remains focused on the Fed’s policy messaging, the US dollar’s direction, and changes in energy prices. Once expectations for rate cuts become even clearer, risk assets and the crypto market may see a more noticeable rebound; conversely, if inflation proves to be volatile again, the market may enter a period of sideways consolidation and adjustment.

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