Unmasking Mainstream Media’s Lie: If They Hike Rates, Does Gold Really Die?

If a rate hike means gold is doomed, how many more times are they going to cut you for it?

The one who said this is a veteran analyst, Thomson, who is extremely closely followed in the US and Europe.

Stuart Thomson, a former senior broker at Merrill Lynch, now serves as the President of Graceland. With decades of market experience, his reports are closely watched by many institutions in the US and Europe thanks to his unique insights and precise forecasts.

Just now, in his latest analysis, Thomson directly uncovered a counterintuitive truth.

If you casually open any finance app—aren’t you being told by the mainstream media that the Middle East war causes inflation, inflation leads to rate hikes, and rate hikes spell gold’s doom?

But Thomson immediately threw down a set of evidence that smacks of blatant contradictions:

In the previous cycle (2022-2025), rates were hiked from near 0 all the way to 5%. Logically, shouldn’t gold have collapsed?

Instead, gold went from $2,000 straight to $4,000—doubling.

Now these people are trotting out the same old script again, claiming that due to geopolitical conflicts, gold may again face a small additional 25 basis-point move, and that it will be headed for disaster. Historical data proves this is pure nonsense.

Actually, behind rate hikes, the real one getting hurt is never gold—the one getting crushed is the US government, which is in debt up to its eyeballs. If interest rates rise to 8%, the US may even struggle to keep up with paying interest.
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So what is gold pulling back on recently?

To see what’s really behind gold:

With India issuing a paper tax order, and coupled with calls for everyone not to buy gold for one year, the global gold market simply loses 40 to 70 tons of demand every month.

Also, in addition, some countries’ central banks need to sell gold to raise cash and to get oil in response to geopolitical shocks—this is the true source of near-term selling pressure.

But the real big picture is only just starting.

Look at the US strategic petroleum reserve—the chart makes it look almost headed to zero. In the future, they will definitely need large-scale replenishment, which will then lift oil prices and inflation again.

The playbook from the 1970s is exactly like this: inflation and interest rates both surge wildly at the same time, and gold doesn’t even care about rate hikes—it goes to the sky.

Federal rate: from an average of 4.4% in 1972 to 16.4% in 1981.

Gold price: from $35 in 1970 to $1,850 in January 1980.

Now global debt is far more extreme than it was back then. Once everyone wakes up, the impact will only be even more brutal.

Have you noticed the “Breakwave” shipping inflation ETF? In just one year, it quietly jumped by more than 100%. Smart money has already been placing bets, while retail investors are still chasing AI stocks at sky-high prices.

(Freight rates are one of the most sensitive indicators of global trade and inflation. If it rises by over 100% in a year, it means physical transportation costs are surging—inflation is not a temporary phenomenon.)

So once you understand the real driving forces, you should watch the key area. On gold’s daily chart, the solid low around $3,900 set in October last year is already coming back close again.

Thomson warns: don’t obsess over where the absolute final lowest price prints. What matters is this zone. You should be a calm buyer with a smile. In past similar key gold opportunity zones—such as $4,400 and $4,100—most large-cap miners’ US stocks later delivered violent rebounds of over 20% quickly, and small caps were even stronger.

So here’s the question: if there’s still a chance to return near $3,900, do you choose to smile and build a position, or keep getting your hands cut off by being scared by the media? In the comments, type “Go” or “Withdraw.”