SpaceX falls below its issue price! Short positions surge to $25 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of the outstanding shares

According to CNBC, the space exploration giant SpaceX has seen its share price under pressure since its IPO, and it has recently even pulled back to around the offering price, drawing in a large amount of short-selling capital. The latest data shows that short positions targeting SpaceX have surged to nearly one-third of its publicly traded shares, with a total value reaching $25 billion. With a large number of shares locked under restricted periods nearing expiration, the market is highly focused on its subsequent price moves and the potential impact of Starship test flights.
(Background recap: SpaceX fell below the $135 IPO offering price; after the story premium was given back, what should we watch next?)
(Background added: The Legislative Yuan amends the Telecommunications Act to open the door for SpaceX’s Starlink network, and the three telecom companies have indicated conditional approval.)

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• Short positions surge, accounting for nearly 30% of float
• Lock-up period unlocks are imminent, and potential selling pressure is heavy
• Starship’s 13th test flight becomes a near-term catalyst

After SpaceX (stock code: SPCX) successfully and prominently completed its first public offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, the honeymoon period seems to have ended early. According to CNBC, SpaceX’s stock price has fallen by about 20% in July, and as of the time of publication, it has been trading in a $134 to $136 range, even dropping below $135—the IPO offering price—at one point. This weak stock performance is attracting Wall Street’s short-seller army to move in.

Short positions surge, accounting for nearly 30% of float

A recent report from data analytics firm S3 Partners reveals an astonishing scale of short-selling. Currently, about 185 million shares of SpaceX stock are being shorted, accounting for about 29% of its publicly tradable float (public float), and the total short value has reached $25 billion. Compared with only about 40 million shares (5% to 7% of float) of short positions three weeks earlier, the shorts’ momentum has shown explosive growth.

Matthew Unterman, research director at S3 Partners, pointed out about this phenomenon: “Since the IPO, we have seen short sellers continue to build speculative positions.” This indicates that the market is highly skeptical about what supports SpaceX’s near-term valuation.

Lock-up period unlocks are imminent, and potential selling pressure is heavy

In addition to the elevated level of short positions, SpaceX will also face a severe test on the supply of shares. Reports say that at the time of its IPO, SpaceX’s publicly available float was only around 5% of total shares outstanding (about 13 billion shares), with the vast majority of shares still subject to lock-up restrictions (Lockup). The first wave of major unlocks is expected to take place around the release of the second-quarter earnings, at which time about 11% of total shares will be available for sale.

Then starting from the 70th day after the IPO, each wave will see about 4% of shares unblocked, along with unlock conditions tied to business performance milestones. As for founder Elon Musk, who holds about 42% of the shares, his lock-up period will continue through June 2027, so it does not pose near-term selling pressure.

Starship’s 13th test flight becomes a near-term catalyst

While pressure on the share supply profile is heavy, major breakthroughs in the fundamentals could become the key factor that drives market sentiment. SpaceX’s highly watched 13th Starship test flight is scheduled for Thursday (July 17). The success or failure of this test will not only affect the company’s timeline for future space programs, but it may also become a major near-term catalyst that either breaks the current grip of the shorts or further triggers a sell-off wave—investors are closely watching this critical launch.