China’s first storage stock: Changxin Memory — how should we look at it?

Simple analysis: This is likely the company in China’s semiconductor sector that is easiest to have “price hikes” completely overshadow.
Many people look at it and their first reaction is: storage chip price hikes, AI driving demand, and domestic substitution.
But what’s truly worth studying isn’t how much the price has risen this round—it’s that China finally has a company capable of scaling DRAM manufacturing.
DRAM is a core component that mobile phones, computers, servers, and AI infrastructure all rely on.
For years, this market has been dominated by Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. Even if domestic firms have design capabilities, it’s still hard to fill the gap in wafer manufacturing and process mass production.
Changxin’s value lies here:
It’s not just making memory sticks—it participates in DRAM R&D, design, and wafer fabrication. This part burns money, burns time, and also burns yield.
Equipment can be bought, materials can be sourced, but process experience and customer qualification require repeated accumulation.
Once Changxin gets its capacity, yield, and product iteration running smoothly, the significance won’t be merely adding another chip company—it means China’s domestic storage industry has its own manufacturing platform.
Financial data also shows a clear inflection point:
In 2025, revenue has already reached about 61.8 billion yuan, and it achieved attributable-parent-company profitability for the first time; in 2026 Q1, profit further surged.
But within this, there are both the release of scale effects and the cyclical factor of DRAM price increases.
So, what Changxin is most worth watching isn’t how much it can earn during a high-enthusiasm period, but how much profit it can preserve after storage prices fall.
If DDR5, server memory, and high-end storage products continue to ramp up in volume, Changxin has a chance to grow from a “domestic substitution flag” into a DRAM manufacturer that is truly globally competitive.
However, if the industry collectively expands capacity, AI demand cools, or product yields and customer qualifications miss expectations, today’s impressive profits could also shrink quickly.
This company is worth studying long-term, but you can’t just look at the price-hike story. The real answer will only appear after it goes through a full storage cycle.
How much do you think its market cap can reach? Is it currently overvalued?