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🇺🇸BREAKING: The House holds a field hearing on the CLARITY Act tomorrow, and the venue tells you as much as the topic.
It's happening at Federal Hall in New York, not Washington. That's a deliberate choice, putting the argument directly in front of Wall Street days before the Senate is supposed to move on the bill.
Here's the real math nobody's saying out loud. The bill needs 60 votes to clear the Senate, which means at least seven Democrats have to cross over. So far exactly two have, both with reservations. Prediction markets have taken notice, Polymarket's odds on 2026 passage have fallen more than 20 points since spring, down to about 43%.
Three fights are holding it up. An ethics provision restricting officials from holding crypto, a fight that's gotten sharper specifically because of ventures tied to the Trump family. A developer-protection clause that law enforcement groups say could shield people who knowingly enable illicit finance. And a dispute over whether stablecoin issuers can offer yield that competes directly with bank deposits.
If the Senate doesn't move before the August recess, this bill likely doesn't come back until next year, and a new Congress in 2027 would probably force it to restart from scratch. Tomorrow's hearing can't pass anything by itself. What it can do is show, in public, whether the coalition needed to get this done is actually still there.