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This is absolutely insane!
Looking back now, I’m so damn nostalgic for Powell’s eight years. It’s not that this guy is some kind of god—what matters most is that he’s predictable, you get it? At least you know what he’ll probably do next. He doesn’t mess with you every day and pull out some huge stunt.
Then the other day he threw out a line—saying that CPI being good is just a single indicator and can’t mean anything, and that things are looking great… Brothers, the market was still enjoying itself two days ago. Last night, as soon as he opened his mouth, he fired off the cannon—turning good times into bad instantly.
Now he keeps saying that the balance sheet should be “as small as possible.” What he means is to quickly slash it—shrink it as much as it can, and then expand again when the crisis comes. Is this the pace of accelerating QT? Just because of what he said last night, the whole market got knocked out directly...
Currently, the Fed’s balance sheet is $6.725 trillion, the pandemic peak was $9 trillion. The more than $2 trillion drop in between mainly depended on Powell. Then Waugh took over and made it clear he wants to keep squeezing hard. But in reality, though? On his mouth he says by late May end it’ll be $6.704 trillion—yet now it’s actually up by $20 billion. But he doesn’t care about that, he still plans to drain everyone’s liquidity.
When QT kicked off in 2022, it shrank like crazy for almost the whole year. That year, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin were the worst year in the past decade. Now you’re trying to replay the old story? You cancelled forward guidance, you won’t even do the dot plot anymore. You keep saying this indicator isn’t good and that indicator is unreliable when looked at alone—then you end it by directly saying you should shrink the balance sheet as much as possible…
$Q bitcoin:native