$64,100 of $BTC —are you still waiting for it to break below 60,000?

First, look at the surface: a slow bleed that won’t stop, leaving retail investors in despair.
Since the start of the year it’s down 26.71%. From the ATH of 126,198, it’s fallen nearly 50%. In the past 24 hours it’s swung by nearly $1,700—from 65.5k back to 64k after being hit by geopolitical news.
Price is currently running near the 50-month EMA. RSI and MACD are neutral. The technical rating has swung back from “strong sell” to “neutral”—a balance between bulls and bears, with a turning point imminent.
First thing: geopolitical selling pressure hit—but did you notice who was actually selling?
Iran strikes U.S. bases, and BTC instantly drops from 65.5k. Retail panics and cuts losses, triggering long liquidations across the whole market.
Same news, three different reactions: first down 3%, second down 1%, third time the market simply ignored it. This is called “bear news getting neutralized.”
Retail is still afraid of a “third world war,” while buy orders from Grayscale and BlackRock have already eaten through the sell walls below 64k.
Second thing: the inflation “good news” is being masked by “sell-the-news”—but you were being fooled.
U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected. BTC pushed above 65k, then got smashed back to 64k on “sell-the-news.”
Good news appears, price rises first then falls—this is “retail buying the top and getting trapped, while institutions wash the market.”
Japan reclassified crypto as a financial asset. South Korea wants to include crypto in national assets. The U.S. may sanction an Iran wallet, but Trump’s team is discussing a crypto bill with the Senate.
Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.
TradingView’s rating has shifted from “strong sell” back to “neutral”—the first time in two months.
The 50-month EMA is right under your feet. Over the past 10 years, every time BTC touched this moving average, there was a sharp rebound. March 2020, November 2022, August 2025—every time you didn’t dare to buy, later you ended up kicking yourself.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 64,500 → 65,500 → 67,000 → 80,000+
Support below: 63,500 → 62,000 → 60,000
For short-term traders:
Use the range approach: sell the highs and buy the dips between 64k–65.5k. If 64k holds and volume picks up, test longs with a stop-loss at 63,400 and targets at 65,500 → 67,000. If 65.5k rejects plus geopolitical news intensifies, you can short lightly, take profit at 64k.
For swing traders:
In the 60k–65k range, build positions in batches via DCA—total position size 10–30%. Always keep some cash. Inflation data turning favorable + 50-month EMA support = moderately bullish for the medium term, with targets at 80k–90k. If it breaks below 58k, reassess.
For long-term believers:
From 126k down to 64k—nearly a 50% pullback. Historically, 2–3 years after the halving is typically like this. 2024 halving → 2025 top-chasing → 2026 correction—this is part of the cycle, not the end of the bull market.
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