Gold Prices Reclaim Above $4,000! Capital Returns, Bridgewater Weighs In

In recent weeks, gold prices have repeatedly tested the $4,000 threshold, making it a key focus for the market. As capital flows into gold-related assets show clear signs of returning—along with the release of Bridgewater’s latest views from the well-known institution—discussion about gold’s outlook has heated up, with investors turning their attention to where this asset goes next.

International gold prices at one point dipped below $4,000 per ounce, then regained this key level. According to Choice data, as of the time of publication on July 16, COMEX gold opened higher and then weakened, at $4,033.9 per ounce, down slightly by 0.44%. Since July, gold prices have been trading sideways and consolidating.

Gold-category ETFs have shown mixed performance. As of July 15, among stock-based gold ETFs, several have been leading the gains since the start of July, with multiple products up more than 7%; however, some commodity-based gold ETFs have edged down slightly.
Nevertheless, after experiencing net outflows during June’s gold-price turbulence and decline, gold-category ETFs have started to see capital return in July.
Data shows that in July, the net subscription shares for gold-category ETFs reached 960 million shares. Among them, Yongying’s gold-stock ETF is the biggest “money magnet,” and the interval net subscription shares for Cathay’s gold-stock ETF and Huaan’s gold ETF are also among the leading figures.

Institutions Discuss Gold’s Next Move

Recently, Hudson Attar, head of currency assets at global giant Bridgewater, also shared views on gold’s performance.
Why, even after geopolitical conflicts have evolved to this point and energy prices have eased somewhat, has gold not rebounded accordingly?
Hudson Attar said there are three reasons:
First, this conflict has still left a series of follow-on impacts. Most importantly, official reserve holders that previously sold gold or reduced their gold exposure via swap agreements tend to stay on the sidelines until normal conditions resume.
Second, investment demand that had pushed gold prices to around $5,500 per ounce before the conflict has not truly returned yet. To encourage investors to increase their allocation to gold again, new catalysts are needed, but at present there are no clear factors strong enough to prompt funds to return to the gold market. Even some factors are directing capital to other assets—for example, ongoing progress in AI infrastructure construction, and the solid returns of related stocks.
Third, over the past one to one and a half months, judging from the performance of various assets, the appeal of “currency depreciation trades” (i.e., investors increasing exposure to scarce assets such as gold to hedge losses from fiat currency depreciation) has changed noticeably. To some extent, this has driven down the prices of gold, Bitcoin, and silver, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened, U.S. Treasury term premiums have leveled off, and breakeven inflation expectations have declined.

However, some institutions still remain confident about gold’s outlook. Liu Tingyu, fund manager of Yongying’s gold-stock ETF, told reporters from the Shanghai Securities News that in recent times, the bearish impact on gold has gradually become muted, and bottoming characteristics are increasingly apparent. He believes that the market has over-priced trades tied to expectations of tighter policy from the Federal Reserve; as inflation and employment data weaken, this expectation is likely to be gradually corrected. #夏日创作营 $XAUUSD ‌