Just took a look at Jīn Shí — the US Initial Jobless Claims data for tonight at 8:30 has been released: prior value 217k (revised), market expectation 218k, actual 215k. Below expectations, it means the labor market is tougher than people thought.

Initial claims are a high-frequency employment indicator that directly drives Fed rate-cut expectations. When the data comes in below expectations, it implies job resilience is stronger than expected, expectations for the Fed to keep rates high heat up, the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets come under collective pressure. By common sense, this should be bearish for “big pie” (the alt/BTC-style narrative).

But look at the chart — BTC/USDT perpetual futures, current price around 64,750. It just surged strongly from the 62,577 low up to 65,260 and then pulled back. Even after the data release, there’s no waterfall selloff. Market resilience is much stronger than expected. Net inflows of funds are $587 million, and the funding rate is only 0.01%, meaning big money is truly buying, and long leverage is only moderate. However, the 14-period RSI has hit 76, which is extremely overbought. Above 65,200, sell pressure is significant.

The data is somewhat bearish, but the chart didn’t break down — what does that mean?

A veteran 9-year old “weed” tells you: now BTC’s pricing power is in liquidity, not in any single data point. CPI cooling has already priced in rate-cut expectations, and this little deviation in initial claims won’t be enough to stir up a big storm.

On the technical side, intraday it’s likely to range-trade in the 64,200–65,200 zone to digest the move. The key is to watch the “lifeline” at 64,000–64,200: a pullback that doesn’t break is a show of strength and a bullish consolidation; after building up energy, there’s still room. If it breaks down, be alert to a retreat toward around 62,500. Chasing above 65,000 has very poor risk-reward—wait for a pullback and confirmation of support before taking action.

Data is noise; liquidity is direction. Hold your hand, don’t chase pumps or kill positions. $BTC ‌