Waller releases a new signal: in the AI era, the most important variable is still monetary policy

In recent years, artificial intelligence has become the hottest topic in the global economy. Many believe AI will fundamentally change production methods, while others worry it will push up asset prices and the overall price level. In response, Waller said whether AI ultimately evolves into an inflation factor does not depend on the technology itself, but on how the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy.

This view has strong practical significance. AI can significantly improve production efficiency, enabling companies to produce more output at the same cost. In theory, this helps ease supply constraints and lower production costs—an important force in suppressing inflation. However, if financial conditions remain accommodative and large amounts of capital flow into the technology sector and capital markets, asset prices will keep rising and consumers’ purchasing power will strengthen, driving demand to expand rapidly. In that case, even if supply increases, it may still create new inflationary pressure.

Experience from the past several decades shows that technological revolutions often improve productivity, but monetary policy determines whether the economy overheats. When market liquidity far exceeds the demand from the real economy, asset bubbles and price increases often occur in tandem. Therefore, the faster AI develops, the more precisely the Fed needs to grasp the policy timing.

For investors, this means that in the future, they cannot focus only on technological breakthroughs by AI companies; they must also pay attention to every interest-rate decision, inflation data, and employment reports. Because these macro variables will determine what valuation level the market assigns to tech stocks.

Waller’s remarks effectively remind the market: AI can create wealth, but it can also amplify risks. And the real factor that determines whether the economy can achieve a high-growth, low-inflation combination still lies in sound, forward-looking, and flexible monetary policy. #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储