AI is not the culprit of inflation; the Federal Reserve is the anchor for market expectations

In his latest comments on the relationship between AI and inflation, Wosh shattered the market’s simplistic view that “AI will definitely push up inflation” or “AI will definitely lead to deflation.” He believes that AI is only one of the important factors affecting economic operations, while what truly determines price trends is how the Federal Reserve manages market expectations and liquidity.

The large-scale adoption of AI means companies can continue improving efficiency. Industries such as manufacturing, logistics, finance, and healthcare all have opportunities to reduce costs and increase production capacity. From the supply side, this is undoubtedly beneficial for stabilizing prices. However, if monetary policy remains loose for a long time—keeping corporate financing costs low and allowing residents’ consumption and investment demand to keep expanding—then if new demand exceeds new supply, prices could still rise.

What the market is most worried about is not AI, but policy lag. When technology rapidly changes the economic structure, if the central bank continues to set policy according to old cycles, it could lead to resource misallocation and even spur new asset bubbles. Therefore, in the future, the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention not only to traditional inflation indicators, but also to the long-term impact of AI on the labor market, wage growth, and corporate profit margins.

For global capital markets, Wosh’s remarks also imply that the importance of macro policy will rise further. Going forward, the valuations of technology stocks, bond yields, and the USD’s trend could all be driven by the balance between productivity changes brought by AI and the Federal Reserve’s policies.

It can be said that AI is the economic engine of the new era, while the Federal Reserve is the driver controlling the engine’s speed. Only if technological innovation and policy regulation remain coordinated can the AI dividend truly translate into long-term, healthy, and sustainable economic growth. #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储