Rebound 64,900–65,300 is capped and shorts are favored; stop loss is above 65,600. Cut the position by half at 64,500, and the rest will be watched for 63,500–62,800.

Last night, both CPI and PPI cooled off, sending BTC up to 65,500. But after topping out at 65,589, it immediately fell in a one-way move, dipping as low as 64,362—after failing three times to break through 65,500, the bullish volume was directly cut off. Good news has been exhausted, so it turns into bad news. Once 64,100 is broken, room to the downside opens.

Resistance above: 64,900–65,300. The trapped long cluster left by the rebound-and-fail zone is dense, and long squeeze/exit positions can pour in at any time.

Downside targets: 63,500–63,600 as the first stop; if it breaks down, look for 62,500–62,800.

① On the 1-hour chart, after peaking at 65,589, it keeps closing bearish and falling. RSI and KDJ turn down from the severely overbought zone. After high-volume red bars at the top, there’s a low-volume bearish grind lower—clear signs that bullish momentum is exhausted.

② The Iran–Israel conflict has continued for the fifth day. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices above $85—an energy-price surge may reverse the disinflation-cooling trend. In July, the Fed will almost certainly stay put, but geopolitical risk remains, suppressing risk appetite. Funds are pulling out of risk assets.

③ Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $107 million yesterday, but in the derivatives market, short-term longs locked in profits and exited, while the long/short open interest ratio fell. Leveraged long positions are rebuilding; if price keeps dropping, passive liquidations will accelerate the selloff.

It can’t clear 65,500 three times—when you should back off, don’t be stubborn.

The market won’t reward bravery; it only rewards being right. $BTC ‌