Storage is a standardized bulk commodity, with technical barriers far lower than those of high-end GPUs and CPUs, and profitability is entirely determined by supply-and-demand cycles. The industry has a heavy-capital, asset-intensive nature; expansion cycles of 18–24 months mean that when the industry is in a boom phase and all companies expand together, it will inevitably lead to oversupply and a sharp collapse in prices. Even if high-end categories such as HBM have barriers, the high margins will attract major players to keep expanding; high gross profit is difficult to sustain over the long term. Looking over an extended cycle, companies’ earnings will fluctuate sharply, making it impossible to achieve long-term stable high returns.



The semiconductor industry’s cycle typically runs one round every 3–5 years, driven by demand, expansion leading to oversupply, and then a price crash. Cycle alternating in turns.
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