July 16: Gold bulls vs bears washing out—can $4,000 hold?

Recently, gold was lifted upward after the CPI impact, with the price rising as high as $4,100. However, after Powell’s speech, it pulled back to test the $4,020 support. And in yesterday’s Asian session, gold continued the intraday short-term bearish trend from the previous day’s early hours, again probing around $4,020. But the good times didn’t last—during the European session, gold did not continue pushing lower. Instead, during the U.S. session, gold quickly surged upward, reaching a high near $4,080 before pulling back. The current gold price is around $4,028. Overall, over these two days, gold has been in a bulls-vs-bears washout state.

On the four-hour chart level, in today’s Asian session gold is pulling back. But since the price is currently supported by the $4,020 area, it has not broken down quickly below the recent swing low. And based on the recent price action, the gold bottom is not pointing up; instead, the highs keep stepping down. While gold has not broken above the $4,080—$4,100 resistance, it also has not broken the bottom support of $4,200—$4,000.

Today’s main focus is whether the European session will continue the early-session downward trend. If it does continue and, before the U.S. session, gold breaks below the $4,000 support at the bottom, then the later U.S. session will have a chance to accelerate to the downside. If, however, the European session gold price does not continue the Asian-session decline, then gold will keep ranging upward toward around $4,060.

Today’s trade plan: Go long around the $4,020—$4,000 range, with defense at $3,990, targeting $4,060.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are volatile, and investing involves risk—enter the market with caution. $XAUT ‌