Bounce capped at 77.5-78.5, short into pressure; stop loss above 79.5; cut half the position at 76.0-76.5; the rest is to watch 74.0-75.0.

SOL followed the broader market to rebound yesterday, topping out at 79.01. However, compared with BTC and ETH, the upside follow-through was clearly much weaker. The 77.5-78.5 resistance zone was hit unsuccessfully twice in a row; funds showed hesitation at the highs, and pullback demand is increasing.

Upward pressure: 77.5-78.5. After yesterday’s high at 79.01, it fell under pressure; around 77 dollars sits the 100-day moving average, where the pressure is heavy.

Downside targets: 76.0-76.5 for the first stop; if it breaks down, look at 74.0-75.0.

① On the 1-hour chart, after spiking to 79.01 it turned and fell; the Bollinger Bands have compressed to a very narrow range of 76.93-78.15, only 1.5%—a violent breakout/breakdown is imminent, and the direction is most likely downward

② The U.S.-Iran conflict continues escalating. The United States is considering strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities; at the same time, the U.S. SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of $707.1k yesterday. Grayscale Solana Trust had a single-day net outflow of $1.16M—institutions are running

③ On-chain data may be good—DEX 24-hour trading volume surpassed $4 billion, and RWA holders surpassed 300k—but the market has already Price In in the short term; when the good news is exhausted, it becomes bad news

Bounce capped at 77.5-78.5, short into pressure; stop loss above 79.5; cut half the position at 76.0-76.5; the rest is to watch 74.0-75.0.

Don’t treat the fundamentals’ story as a belief for short-term trading. $SOL ‌