$CXMT ‌$CXMT $CXMT

1: If you want to participate in Changxin, a better strategy

Option A: A-share IPO subscription (best)

Apply today, offering price 8.66 RMB

Low chance of winning, but participate at zero cost

On the first day of trading, if it rises 100-200%, winning the lottery means profit

Option B: Wait for the Gate contract to return to a reasonable price before entering

If the A-share listing first day rises 100-200% (17-26 RMB / 2.4-3.6 USD)

The Gate contract could fall from $7.3 to the $3-5 range

Add long positions at $3-4, and the payoff odds will be much better

Option C: Short the Gate contract (contrarian thinking)

$7.3 is an obviously overvalued level

If the A-share listing first day "only" rises 100-200%, the Gate contract could crash by 50%+

But note: the liquidity risk of shorting pre-market contracts is extremely high, and if the A-shares surge wildly on day one, you could get squeezed

2. Risk warning

Gate contract ≠ A-share stock: CXMT on Gate is a perpetual contract deployed on Hyperliquid, not direct ownership of A-share stock—there is counterparty risk

Pricing mechanism is unclear: pre-market contract prices are determined by a small number of trades and don’t represent market consensus

A-share first-day performance is uncertain: although fundamentals are strong, the broader market environment is weak (the ChiNext-style board today is down), which may suppress the first-day upside

DRAM cycle risk: while the supercycle is ongoing, the market is already trading the expectation of “having topped” (today’s storage chips plunging across the board is the signal)

One sentence: Changxin is a good company, but $7.3 is not a good price. Good company + bad price = don’t trade. Wait for the price to return to a reasonable range before considering. #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 ❤️