Changxin’s new IPO draw delivers a rare “sunshine for all” moment: the allotment probability for the Shanghai market is about 18% with a daily average market cap of 200k yuan.

BlockBeats news: On July 16, China’s domestic storage-chip leader ChangXin Technology opened subscriptions today, with hopes of challenging the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier. Currently, market institutions uniformly predict the online winning (lottery) rate will range from 0.30% to 0.70%, with the neutral mainstream expectation around 0.45%. This is about 10 to 20 times the subscription-winning rate of recent new listings on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which is only 0.02% to 0.05%, and sets the stage for a “sunshine coverage” market.

The core reason for the sharp increase in the winning rate is that a large amount of strategic allocation has been shifted (reallocated) to retail online channels, and the online offering size has hit a record high in the history of the STAR Market. Based on a neutral estimate of 0.45%, a daily average market value of 200,000 (in Shanghai market) can obtain about 40 allotment codes; the probability of winning per account is about 18%. With a daily average market value of 1 million, the number of wins would theoretically be stably 1, and a maximum (ceiling) subscription worth 16.72 million in market value could win about 15 lots. This “sunshine coverage” window for new-share subscriptions is relatively rare in STAR Market history: retail investors’ winning probability is significantly higher than that of any hot new stock in recent years.

However, it should be noted that the current data are all broker forecast figures. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will publish the official winning-rate announcement after the close on July 17. For key timing, the winning lot numbers will be released on July 20. On the same day, by 4:00 p.m., users’ accounts must have sufficient funds to complete payment. For each lot of 500 shares, the corresponding payment amount is 4,330 yuan. Institutional estimates put the potential profit window per lot at approximately between 3,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan.