Tonight 20:30 (UTC+8) will release the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11:

Previous: 215k, market expectation: 218k. Expectations edge slightly higher; the market has already priced in a mildly weaker jobs picture.

Initial jobless claims are a high-frequency employment indicator that directly affects Fed rate-cut expectations, which in turn influences USD strength and drives volatility in crypto market sentiment.

1. Data > 218k (above expectations; bullish for BTC/ETH/SOL)
An increase in unemployment claims implies the labor market is cooling. The market will bet that the Fed will accelerate its rate-cut pace; the USD will face pressure and weaken, with funds flowing into risk assets.
But currently, each coin is in a high-level “tail-end” short structure. Even if there is a short-term bullish rebound, sell pressure overhead remains heavy. Treat any rebound only as an opportunity to short from high levels—never chase longs.

2. Data < 218k (below expectations; bearish for BTC/ETH/SOL)
Unemployment claims miss expectations; employment resilience is stronger than expected. Expectations for the Fed to keep high interest rates rise, the USD strengthens, and risk assets face broad pressure. This will directly amplify the current high-level pullback short trend, opening up profit potential for shorts.