ETH surged 200 points in two days: even pros can lose, while beginners are more likely to get lost

2026-07-16 12:00·Xingge on Crypto

In the recent ETH run, I believe many traders have had a clear feeling about it.

After two consecutive key data windows—CPI and PPI—the market didn’t play out exactly as everyone expected.

Many people focused on BTC, hoping that once the data landed, there would be a more obvious breakout. But in the actual price action, BTC remained relatively choppy, while ETH climbed by more than 200 points within two days.

This is what’s most interesting about the trading market.

You can get the big direction right, but along the way you may still experience volatility and make mistakes.

For this move, my own judgment on direction ultimately ended up matching expectations.

But during the trade process, I also experienced a small loss.

At the time, based on market structure, the impact of the data, and the price reaction, I made a bearish-leaning idea in advance.

After entering the trade, the market didn’t immediately run as expected, and instead kept testing upward pressure.

According to my trading rules, I chose to control risk and exit.

Many new traders might think:

“Since the final direction was right, why did I still lose in the middle?”

This is actually the biggest difference between trading and prediction.

The market isn’t an exam—there’s no question where you only need to fill in the final answer.

During trading, pace, position, emotion, and risk management all affect the outcome.

A truly mature trader isn’t someone who never gets the direction wrong.

Because nobody can be correct every time.

The difference between pros and ordinary people isn’t that they never make mistakes.

It’s whether, after making a mistake, they can adjust quickly.

After reviewing this move, my biggest takeaway is:

I’m glad my directional judgment came from analysis after careful thought, not simple guessing.

This included综合 consideration of macro data impact, changes in market capital, the relative strength of ETH itself, and the price structure.

But it also reminds me:

Getting it right once doesn’t mean you’ve mastered the market.

Every cycle brings new changes.

Traders always need to keep learning.

A common problem for many beginners is that after one profitable trade, they start to feel like they’ve found the pattern.

Or after one losing trade, they begin to doubt their own ability.

Then they keep changing strategies, chase pumps and selloffs, and eventually lose their own trading rhythm.

Even pros can lose.

But pros won’t negate themselves after a single loss.

They will review:

Why was I wrong?

What needs optimization?

How can I avoid it next time?

And the most dangerous thing for beginners is getting lost after a loss.

After trading for so many years, I’ve come to feel more and more that what truly matters in the market isn’t who predicts most accurately.

It’s who can stay humble, control risk, and keep growing.

Because opportunities in crypto are always there.

But only those who keep learning can still be able to seize the next opportunity when it arrives. $ETH #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储