$US 24 hours up 41%, but don’t get too excited yet. Last night’s jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) came in unexpectedly, and the Fed minutes suggested the probability of a rate cut this year fell to 40%. The Nasdaq dropped 2% straight away. Bitcoin followed lower, while the $US bucked the trend and surged. Don’t just stare at the rise-and-fall of this abnormal data—the real story is cross-asset linkage: oil crashed 2%, copper prices pulled back 1.5%, and funds were forced into smaller coins for risk hedging.

I ran a quantitative backtest. Over the past 30 days, the negative correlation between $US and BTC is as high as -0.68. They’re positively correlated with the US stock market at 0.82—but this time they decoupled, suggesting insider money is controlling the market.

Trading advice: enter at 0.038–0.04, stop-loss at 0.032, take-profit at 0.05, and don’t let your position exceed 5%.

Don’t just watch the chart—pay attention to tomorrow’s CPI. If it comes in below 3%, expectations for rate hikes will cool, and the $US could push again toward 0.06. Otherwise, be careful of a sell-off back to 0.03.

Don’t rush to follow trades—think first: do you believe this move was the market maker pumping to distribute, or genuine value discovery? See you in the voting section.