7.16 midday

From the perspective of the larger cycle, the current market has already shown a clear top-back divergence pattern. At this stage, the overall situation is in a gradual repair phase. The underlying base of the overall downward-to-sideways rebound remains solid, and it is unlikely that the short term will directly reverse the uptrend (↑).

Recently, although upward movement has met with pressure and pulled back (回咯), the pullback process has never broken through the 636—640 core support watershed. This range is the dividing line for the current strength of the bulls and bears. If the market effectively breaks the support band in the future, it would mean the bull structure has officially converged and weakened, and the market will start a deeper pullback phase. Before the support level is broken, the overall strategy should still mainly rely on holding and absorbing dips based on support; there is no need to prematurely predict a market reversal.


Recommendation
Big BTC (大饼): Go long on the dip at 645-640, target 660-670
Second BTC (二饼): Go long at 1900-1880, target 1960-1990.