July 16

Gold Midday
US CPI and PPI continued to weaken, sharply lowering the odds of a July rate hike, but the Federal Reserve’s remarks have capped upside room
June PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, combined with the earlier cooling in CPI, the market has already largely ruled out the possibility of a July rate hike. But the newly appointed Fed Chair Waller made it clear in his testimony: inflation can’t be declared to have peaked based on just a single month’s decline in prices; the 2% inflation target will not be compromised, and the option of another rate hike in September remains on the table.
These hawkish-leaning remarks steadied the US dollar and US Treasury yields, directly limiting how high gold’s rebound can go. This current rise in gold prices is merely a corrective move driven by short-covering, not a reversal of the uptrend. Once Middle East oil prices move higher and lift inflation expectations, the market will reprice the likelihood of subsequent rate hikes, putting renewed pressure on gold.
Technical analysis
Hourly chart: After rising, the moving averages turned downward, forming a weak consolidation pattern, and indicators on the smaller timeframe have continued to deteriorate. With thin midday liquidity, it’s difficult to break above the resistance zone again; consolidating downward to digest support is the most likely scenario at present.
Strategy: For rebounds at 4065-4075, place protection at 4088, with targets at 4022-4005
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk; enter the market with caution