That sudden deep sell just now caught a lot of people off guard, but it’s exactly the confirmation I was waiting for. After $TRB spent so long consolidating at the highs, it looks strong on the surface, but the sell pressure above hasn’t really gone away.

I entered shorts from 16.26; the current price is 15.14. +493.11% has already been realized. The real turning point isn’t the moment it dropped—it’s earlier, when repeated attempts to push higher kept failing. As the move dragged on, the more capital was required to keep lifting, the harder it got. I won’t chase longs into a market like this; instead, I’ll watch for short opportunities.

Along the way there were also bounces. Many people see it pull back and think it’s about to engulf to the upside, but my feeling is completely the opposite: the bounce is weak, the bids are scattered, and the downward pressure hits fast. After the market’s upside/downside range is released, you can’t be greedy with position management. Take profit in batches using an 80/20 split, and keep the rest protected with a stop/guard level.

What’s most dangerous in futures trading is fantasizing that profits will extend endlessly. If you can capture the part that belongs to you, that’s enough. Now the short outcome is already out in the open—if you didn’t get in, don’t chase a bearish move just to force it. Don’t chase a trade; wait for the next opportunity.

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