Bitcoin at US$64,660: The hidden on-chain signal that suggests we’re still in a bear market

1/ Bitcoin outperformed US and European equities following a 0.4% monthly drop in US CPI inflation, the largest cooling since April 2020. This macroeconomic relief renewed investor confidence in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, driving capital back into risk assets like cryptocurrency.
2/ Bitcoin trades above the average on-chain cost basis but remains below the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000. Long-term holders have stopped realizing profits, and recent outflows sold at a loss, signaling classic late-stage bear market capitulation.
3/ Buyers absorbed June selling pressure, with Glassnode data showing broad accumulation across small and large wallets near recent lows. This accumulation has now moderated as prices stabilized, indicating a healthy market equilibrium rather than frantic speculative buying.
4/ US spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions slowed significantly from June levels. Funds netted $181 million in inflows on Tuesday, partially offsetting the previous day $424 million outflow. Institutions have stopped fleeing but remain cautious, waiting for sustained macroeconomic stability before aggressive buying.
5/ Traders steadily shifted away from bearish positioning. The options put to call ratio fell to its lowest level of the year, showing reduced demand for downside protection. Perpetual futures funding rates remain slightly positive, indicating long positioning is not crowded.
6/ Bitcoin hovers around $64,660 after reclaiming the $65,000 psychological milestone. Breaking technical resistance between $58,000 and $62,000 triggered massive short covering. Forced buying from traders closing losing positions acted as rocket fuel to push the price higher.
7/ Three main factors drive this momentum. Easing inflation data provides macro relief. Massive institutional ETF inflows, including over $180 million in a single day, absorb market supply. Short covering and forced liquidations cleared bearish leverage to fuel the breakout.